Guoxin Securities: The restaurant layout is at the right time, a golden circuit for tea drinking

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that from January to November 2025, the country's food and beverage revenue increased by 3.3%, slower than the 4.1% growth rate of retail sales, which continued to weaken. Unlike the coffee and tea circuit, which benefited from the takeout subsidy war, the revenue of leading restaurants listed on 2025H1 was disrupted by multiple factors such as price cuts, disrupted high-end catering policies, and public opinion on prepared dishes. However, the same 7.5% increase in net profit from 2025H1 indicates an improvement in operating efficiency. Considering the relatively low operating base of leading restaurants in 2026, along with a rebound in CPI data, potential service policy boosts, and continuous innovation initiatives by leading companies, such as the revenue side showing more surprises and operating leverage, the sector is expected to bottom out at a low base.

In terms of tea drinks, benefiting from this round of takeout subsidy war, the 2025H1 revenue & adjusted net profit of the seven listed tea drink leaders increased by 32.5%/58.0% respectively, further accelerating from 2024 (+22.5%/+15.0%). Along with the gradual decline in takeout subsidies, the market is also watching how the leading tea drink company faces base pressure in 26Q2/Q3. The expansion of new product lines, such as mutual penetration of milk tea and coffee, continuous product innovation, and new brand curve construction, are the main coping ideas. Along with increased brand awareness and series of initiatives to increase franchisee returns after launch, the trend of concentration is expected to continue to be interpreted.

Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:

Food and beverage consumption trends: 1) Demand is weak, supply is clear, and leading diversified initiatives seek growth: from January to November 2025, the country's food and beverage revenue increased by 3.3%, slower than the 4.1% growth rate of retail sales, which continued to weaken. Under pressure from the demand side, most food and beverage circuits are marginally clear in 2025, and the leader relies on diversified ideas such as product line expansion and takeout channels to generate revenue; 2) Structural growth of online channels: the real-time retail war in 2025 accelerates the increase in consumption penetration, and the milk tea, coffee, and fast food stages have benefited significantly, but as platform competition evolves, the brand's attitude towards takeout is also more dialectical and rational; 3) Brand building ideas are also highlighted: in the current consumer environment, brand building ideas are also based on individual products From the explosion of funds to the demand for efficiency in the supply chain, management also paid more attention to building a membership system and transforming private traffic.

Market review: Since the beginning of the year, the same store has led the market with strong growth rate and excellent expansion logic. 1. The leading coffee and tea drinking sector, Gu Ming, Mixue Group/Lucky Coffee, rose 185.8%/45.4%/39.2% respectively. The platform takeout war greatly increased consumption frequency. The revenue of franchisees increased year-on-year and the enthusiasm of franchisees led to a rise in stock prices; 2. Leading restaurant trends diverged, with strong same-store data & faster store opening speed, such as increased efficiency in the pot circle, clearly leading 98%. Guangzhou restaurants/Xiaocaiyuan/Green Tea Group/Yum Sheng China rose 11.8%/9.2%/8.8%/8.8% /3.4, respectively % is average; other brands are under pressure from stock price trends.

Sub-industry analysis and outlook: 1) Ready-made tea: Benefiting from this round of takeout subsidy war, the 2025H1 revenue & adjusted net profit of the 7 listed tea drink leaders increased by 32.5%/58.0%, respectively, and further accelerated from 2024 (+22.5%/+15.0%). Along with the gradual decline in takeout subsidies, the market is also watching how the leading tea drink company faces base pressure in 26Q2/Q3. The expansion of new product lines, such as mutual penetration of milk tea and coffee, continuous product innovation, and new brand curve construction, are the main coping ideas. Along with increased brand awareness and series of initiatives to increase franchisee returns after launch, the trend of concentration is expected to continue to be interpreted. 2) Catering: Unlike coffee and tea racing, which benefited from the takeout subsidy war, the revenue of leading restaurants listed on 2025H1 was disrupted by multiple factors such as price cuts, disturbances in high-end catering policies, and public opinion on prepared dishes. However, the same 7.5% increase in net profit from 2025H1 indicates an improvement in operating efficiency. Considering the relatively low operating base of leading restaurants in 2026, along with a rebound in CPI data, potential service policy boosts, and continuous innovation initiatives by leading companies, such as the revenue side showing more surprises and operating leverage, the sector is expected to bottom out at a low base.

Thinking about updating the food and beverage investment framework (2025): The shift in the valuation of leading food and tea drinks stemmed from changes in performance growth expectations. 1) The same store revenue growth rate is a valuation anchor, which not only characterizes the profitability of existing stores, but also affects the pace of future store expansion; 2) Store growth is a valuation amplifier. If a rising brand expands at an accelerated pace, valuation/performance is expected to double; if stores aggressively expand in the same store's downturn, the valuation may be adjusted; 3) New product incubation provides new momentum, but requires a supporting incentive system to balance the interests of new and old brand teams; 4) External factors: the epidemic The contrarian increase in concentration in Halong and the development opportunities of leading tea drinking companies under the takeout war can all bring investment opportunities to increase valuation. 5) Valuation premium/discount: Historically, leading PE premiums such as dynamic PE up to 100x stem from the determinity/growth of the model, and the degree of premium is related to the racetrack space/competitive pattern/corporate governance.