Open Source Securities: After 8 consecutive years, look at the turbulent changes in this spring

The Zhitong Finance App learned that open source securities released a research report saying that strong incremental capital became a further driving force for the spring unrest in late December, compounding the positive elements of the previous period, and helped the Shanghai Composite Index rise 8 times. The bank recommended continuing to actively plan for spring agitation, where technology and cycles go hand in hand. In terms of investment ideas, the overall layout thinking still suggests focusing on technology+PPI, but in terms of transactions, we can focus on new marginal changes. One is that due to the continuous strengthening of policy statements to expand domestic demand, consumption such as commerce and social services has become locally popular, but overall consumption is in beta or still depends on continuous improvement in data. The second is an opportunity to strengthen the New Year's Eve theme at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. It can focus on the commercial space and satellite industry chain.

The summary of the report is as follows:

As of December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has reached 8 consecutive positives

In our 11.30 report “Early Layout Spring Restlessness”, we pointed out that the market has recently undergone some adjustments, but we think we can be more active now. We proposed on 12.21 that the impact of the three major factors currently being further positive is that the impact of early market adjustments is weakening: first, the impact of overseas liquidity disturbances, where the Fed's interest rate cut hedged the impact of Japan's interest rate hike; second, the risk spillover from the AI bubble theory has improved under the US stock earnings window, so there is no need to panic; the third is that recently released economic data is relatively moderate, adding that the Central Economic Work Conference did not significantly exceed expectations. However, we believe that the RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate or indicates that global investors still have sufficient confidence in the Chinese economy, which is falsified This concern. As of December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has reached 8 consecutive positives. This is the third time since the “9.24” market in 2024.

December anomaly: A500 ETF's large net inflow

Broad-based ETF inflows in December were “abnormal”: (1) Broad-based ETFs showed a net inflow in the second half of the year, with a net inflow of 110.6 billion yuan (up to 12.25 billion yuan); (2) Of this 110.6 billion yuan, 101.9 billion yuan actually came from A500 ETFs, accounting for 92.2%. At the same time, the remaining types of broad-based ETFs do not have net outflows of the same order of magnitude, which proves that the net inflow of the A500 ETF is more likely to be incremental rather than “moving” from other broad-based ETFs.

Impact on the market: (1) Contribution to the recent market: Strong incremental capital became a further driving force for the spring unrest in late December, compounding the positive elements of the previous period, and helped the Shanghai Composite Index rise 8 times. (2) Impact on the future market: If capital is a temporary “impulse”, considering that capital is likely to be “new” rather than “inflated”, it means that there will be minor capital disturbances in early January because the “impulse” ends at the end of the year; however, the core driving force of this round of spring agitation is not the incremental capital of the A500ETF, so changes in this part of the capital will not have much impact on the general trend of the market. If it is medium- to long-term capital, the impact on the future market will not be significant.

Price increases have also been a catalyst for this round of spring unrest: sorting out investment opportunities for price increases

Taken together, in the context of the domestic macroeconomic environment of PPI repair and anti-internal volume policies, combined with weak overseas dollars and a significant increase in demand for AI hardware, current chemical products (PTA, pesticides, silicone, refrigerants, phosphorus chemicals, etc.), new energy materials (hexafluoride, lithium carbonate, electrolytes, diaphragms, cobalt, photovoltaic silicon wafers, etc.), and electronic and communication varieties related to computing power (electronic chemicals, storage chips, liquid cooling logic spill, etc.) etc.), non-ferrous metals (precious metals, small metals, energy metals), etc. are all likely to rise.

Investment ideas - continue to actively lay out spring agitation, technology and cycle go hand in hand

The overall layout thinking still suggests focusing on technology+PPI, but we can focus on new marginal changes in transactions. One is that due to the continuous strengthening of policy statements to expand domestic demand, consumption such as commerce and social services has become locally popular, yet the overall consumption beta may still rely on continuous improvement in data. The second is an opportunity to strengthen the New Year's Eve theme at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. It can focus on the commercial space and satellite industry chain.

Industry configuration suggestions: (1) restoration and high cutting within technology: military, media (games), AI applications, Hong Kong stock internet, batteries, core AI hardware; (2) PPI improvements and broad-spectrum reverse internal volume benefits: photovoltaics, chemicals, steel, non-ferrous, electricity, machinery; (3) medium- to long-term bottom positions: gold, optimized high dividends.

Risk warning: macroeconomic policy changes exceeding expectations; short-term market liquidity risk; geopolitical risk; industrial policy change risk.