The Huatai Securities Research Report pointed out that on December 25, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke through the important intraday mark of 7.00, and the onshore RMB also rose above 7.01. Currently, after crossing the symbolic point of 7, we are still optimistic about the potential and momentum of RMB appreciation. At the fundamental level, the RMB exchange rate is highly competitive, and its relative price advantage is increasing day by day — an annualized appreciation of 4-5 percentage points does not affect the overall advantage of China's export industry. In addition to the peak of convergence as a catalyst, we are concerned about a “good start” in 2026 and the potential benefits of further easing of Sino-US economic and trade relations. As far as the impact on the market environment is concerned, RMB appreciation at this stage is expected to boost foreign investors' attention and risk appetite for RMB assets, and form a “positive cycle” with capital inflows, boosting asset valuations and interbank liquidity, which in turn is conducive to easing financial conditions. We reaffirm the forecast that the USD/RMB exchange rate will be 6.82 by the end of 2026 and that China's nominal GDP will grow by 8.5-9% in US dollars in 2026.

The Huatai Securities Research Report pointed out that on December 25, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke through the important intraday mark of 7.00, and the onshore RMB also rose above 7.01. Currently, after crossing the symbolic point of 7, we are still optimistic about the potential and momentum of RMB appreciation. At the fundamental level, the RMB exchange rate is highly competitive, and its relative price advantage is increasing day by day — an annualized appreciation of 4-5 percentage points does not affect the overall advantage of China's export industry. In addition to the peak of convergence as a catalyst, we are concerned about a “good start” in 2026 and the potential benefits of further easing of Sino-US economic and trade relations. As far as the impact on the market environment is concerned, RMB appreciation at this stage is expected to boost foreign investors' attention and risk appetite for RMB assets, and form a “positive cycle” with capital inflows, boosting asset valuations and interbank liquidity, which in turn is conducive to easing financial conditions. We reaffirm the forecast that the USD/RMB exchange rate will be 6.82 by the end of 2026 and that China's nominal GDP will grow by 8.5-9% in US dollars in 2026.