Upstart (UPST) Valuation Check After Tech CU Expansion Into Personal Loans and Future Auto Refinance

Upstart Holdings (UPST) is back in focus after Tech CU expanded its use of Upstart’s AI lending platform, adding personal loans now and planning auto refinance offerings in early 2026 through the Upstart Referral Network.

See our latest analysis for Upstart Holdings.

The Tech CU expansion comes as Upstart’s share price has rebounded, with a 7 day share price return of 7.04 percent and 30 day share price return of 23.58 percent. This comes even though the year to date share price return of negative 20.69 percent and 1 year total shareholder return of negative 29.62 percent show that momentum is only starting to repair a deeper pullback, while the 3 year total shareholder return of 293.63 percent still underlines how powerful the longer term story has been.

If this kind of AI lending story has your attention, it could be a time to explore other high growth tech opportunities using our high growth tech and AI stocks.

With shares still below analyst targets but fresh partnerships supporting double digit revenue and earnings growth, the key question now is whether Upstart remains mispriced by a skeptical market or if future gains are already fully baked in.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 13% Undervalued

With Upstart trading at $48.22 versus a narrative fair value near $55, the spotlight shifts to whether the growth roadmap can close that gap.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $80.846 for Upstart Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $105.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $20.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue surge, margin expansion, and future earnings multiple are built into this call? The narrative’s numbers may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $55.38 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, lingering delinquency concerns and sensitivity to shifting macro conditions could still disrupt Upstart’s growth path and challenge the current undervaluation thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Upstart Holdings narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

While the narrative model sees Upstart as around 13 percent undervalued, a simple earnings based lens tells a different story. At a price to earnings ratio of 145.6 times versus a fair ratio of 42 times, the stock also trades far richer than the 10 times industry and 11.4 times peer averages, suggesting expectations may already be stretched. Which lens feels closer to how you think the next few years will really play out?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Upstart Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a customized view in just minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Upstart Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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