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    HF Sinclair (DINO): Reassessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Pullback

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 17:21:06
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    HF Sinclair (DINO) has had a choppy few months, with the stock sliding roughly 13% over the past month and 14% over the past 3 months, even after a strong year.

    See our latest analysis for HF Sinclair.

    The recent slide looks more like a breather than a breakdown, with the share price still up strongly year to date and a three year total shareholder return that remains positive, while the five year total shareholder return is particularly impressive.

    If HF Sinclair’s moves have you rethinking your energy exposure, it could be a good moment to scan aerospace and defense stocks for other resilient, cash generative businesses.

    With earnings still growing and the stock trading at a double digit discount to analyst targets, investors now face a key question: is HF Sinclair undervalued after this pullback, or are markets already pricing in its future growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 23.4% Undervalued

    With HF Sinclair closing at $46.35 against a narrative fair value of $60.53, the storyline leans heavily toward meaningful upside potential.

    Ongoing share repurchases and a commitment to capital returns, underpinned by a conservative balance sheet and robust cash flow generation, are described as key factors that may support long-term EPS growth and shareholder value.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how modest top line growth assumptions, expanding margins, and a richer future earnings multiple combine to support that higher value? The full narrative unpacks the math, the timelines, and the capital return playbook in detail.

    Result: Fair Value of $60.53 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, faster EV adoption and stubbornly weak renewable margins could compress refining volumes and delay the earnings and multiple expansion that this narrative relies on.

    Find out about the key risks to this HF Sinclair narrative.

    Another Lens On Value

    While the narrative fair value points to upside, a simple earnings based view is more cautious. HF Sinclair trades on a 21.8x P E ratio, above the US Oil and Gas industry at 12.9x and its own fair ratio of 19.4x. This suggests limited margin of safety if growth underdelivers.

    See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

    NYSE:DINO PE Ratio as at Dec 2025
    NYSE:DINO PE Ratio as at Dec 2025

    Build Your Own HF Sinclair Narrative

    If you would rather dig into the numbers yourself and challenge these assumptions, you can build a complete narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your HF Sinclair research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.