Could CEPI’s Bird Flu Backing Mark a Turning Point in Moderna (MRNA)’s mRNA Diversification Strategy?

• In recent weeks, Moderna secured up to US$54.3 million in CEPI funding to advance late-stage development of its bird flu vaccine candidate mRNA-1018 and received a positive opinion from the European Medicines Agency recommending authorization of its next-generation COVID-19 vaccine, mNEXSPIKE.
• Together, this external funding support and EU regulatory progress underline how Moderna is seeking to extend its mRNA franchise beyond seasonal COVID demand and into broader pandemic preparedness.
• We’ll now examine how CEPI’s backing for Moderna’s bird flu program could reshape the company’s investment narrative around pipeline diversification.

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Moderna Investment Narrative Recap

To own Moderna today, you need to believe its mRNA platform can move beyond a shrinking, seasonal COVID market into a broader, multi-product vaccine business. The CEPI bird flu funding and EMA support for mNEXSPIKE help the near term narrative, but the most important catalyst remains evidence that new, non COVID programs can smooth out revenue volatility, while the biggest current risk is tightening regulatory scrutiny on COVID vaccines.

Among the recent announcements, the US$54.3 million CEPI commitment to mRNA-1018 looks most relevant, because it directly addresses concerns that Moderna’s future depends too heavily on COVID and RSV seasonality. External funding for late stage development may give the company more room to pursue diversification while it targets break even profitability by 2028, though it does not remove the execution and demand uncertainty around its broader respiratory portfolio.

Yet while these updates are encouraging, investors should be aware of how rising regulatory scrutiny on COVID vaccine safety could...

Read the full narrative on Moderna (it's free!)

Moderna's narrative projects $3.5 billion revenue and $498.6 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Moderna's forecasts yield a $36.75 fair value, a 12% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twenty five Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Moderna range from US$36.75 to US$175, showing how far apart individual views can be. As you weigh those, remember that Moderna’s reliance on cost cuts and external financing to support its pipeline raises questions about how quickly new products might offset pressure on COVID driven revenues, so it can be useful to compare several of these perspectives before forming your own view.

Explore 25 other fair value estimates on Moderna - why the stock might be worth over 5x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Moderna research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Moderna research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Moderna's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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