On December 25, the foreign exchange market ushered in a landmark moment — the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar opened above the “7” mark and recovered this important integer mark for the first time since October 2024. The intraday high hit 6.9985, a record high in 15 months. Meanwhile, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened at the same time, approaching the “7” mark, reaching 7.0066, a new high since September 2024. Since 2025, along with the weakening of the US dollar, the RMB exchange rate has begun a significant appreciation channel, and since late November, it has shown a clear trend of unilateral appreciation. “7 more is a mathematical meaning. It's not much different from 6.9 and 7.1, so there's no need to surprise the market.” Guan Tao, the world's chief economist at BOC Securities, said. Guan Tao believes that the recent appreciation of RMB is due to the dominance of short-term profit factors, which does not mean the beginning of a new cycle of appreciation. Taken together, the RMB exchange rate is unlikely to show a one-sided trend next year; it is more likely to fluctuate around 7 times. The final trend of the RMB exchange rate will mainly depend on three major factors: the relative strength of economic recovery between China and the US, the changing trend of US dollar interest rates and exchange rates, the evolution of China's foreign trade relations, and domestic economic recovery. The market should not be overly obsessed with speculating on specific points, nor should it form linear expectations of unilateral appreciation or depreciation; exchange rate fluctuations in both directions will become the norm.

On December 25, the foreign exchange market ushered in a landmark moment — the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar opened above the “7” mark and recovered this important integer mark for the first time since October 2024. The intraday high hit 6.9985, a record high in 15 months. Meanwhile, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened at the same time, approaching the “7” mark, reaching 7.0066, a new high since September 2024. Since 2025, along with the weakening of the US dollar, the RMB exchange rate has begun a significant appreciation channel, and since late November, it has shown a clear trend of unilateral appreciation. “7 more is a mathematical meaning. It's not much different from 6.9 and 7.1, so there's no need to surprise the market.” Guan Tao, the world's chief economist at BOC Securities, said. Guan Tao believes that the recent appreciation of RMB is due to the dominance of short-term profit factors, which does not mean the beginning of a new cycle of appreciation. Taken together, the RMB exchange rate is unlikely to show a one-sided trend next year; it is more likely to fluctuate around 7 times. The final trend of the RMB exchange rate will mainly depend on three major factors: the relative strength of economic recovery between China and the US, the changing trend of US dollar interest rates and exchange rates, the evolution of China's foreign trade relations, and domestic economic recovery. The market should not be overly obsessed with speculating on specific points, nor should it form linear expectations of unilateral appreciation or depreciation; exchange rate fluctuations in both directions will become the norm.