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    Churchill Downs (CHDN): Reassessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 10:24:53
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    Churchill Downs (CHDN) has quietly outpaced the market over the past 3 months, gaining about 18%, even as its one year return still sits in negative territory for longer term holders.

    See our latest analysis for Churchill Downs.

    That recent 30 day share price return of 7.4%, and 18.5% over 90 days, suggests momentum is rebuilding after a tough year in which total shareholder return is still negative, despite solid multi year gains.

    If Churchill Downs has you rethinking where growth could come from next, it might be worth scouting fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a fresh source of ideas.

    With the stock still down over the past year but trading at a notable discount to analyst targets and intrinsic estimates, is Churchill Downs a misunderstood value, or is the market already pricing in its next leg of growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 15.4% Undervalued

    With Churchill Downs closing at $114.02 against an implied fair value of $134.75, the most widely followed narrative argues the market is underestimating its long term cash generation.

    Expansion and ramp up of high margin Historical Racing Machine (HRM) properties in Kentucky and Virginia, along with new projects in New Hampshire and potential new markets, will increase Churchill Downs' exposure to experiential gaming and drive recurring revenue and margin growth, as consumer preferences continue shifting toward destination entertainment and integrated gaming.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how steady venue rollouts, richer Derby economics, and rising digital wagering can all point to a higher valuation multiple than today? The full narrative explains the growth math behind that view, from revenue mix shifts to margin expansion assumptions that could reshape expectations for this stock.

    Result: Fair Value of $134.75 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this upside depends on HRM and Derby investments delivering as planned and could be derailed by regulatory shifts or softer regional gaming demand.

    Find out about the key risks to this Churchill Downs narrative.

    Build Your Own Churchill Downs Narrative

    If that framework does not quite match your view or you would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can shape a personalized thesis in minutes, Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Churchill Downs research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

    Ready for your next investing move?

    Churchill Downs might only be one chapter in your portfolio story, and you may want to consider other opportunities that investors are already tracking.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.