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    Reassessing Sirius XM (SIRI) Valuation After Howard Stern Renewal and 2026 Growth Outlook

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 09:29:25
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    Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) is back in the spotlight after renewing Howard Stern for another multi year run, a move that shores up a core content pillar and underpins subscriber stability.

    See our latest analysis for Sirius XM Holdings.

    Shares have cooled off lately, with the 90 day share price return down 7.6 percent, even as Berkshire Hathaway’s larger stake, rising short interest and expectations for a 2026 revenue rebound keep the long term story very much alive.

    If Stern’s renewal has you rethinking audio and media plays, this is a good moment to widen your search and explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

    Yet with shares lagging over one, three and five years, even as analysts project a 2026 revenue inflection and see upside to today’s price, is Sirius XM quietly undervalued or already discounting that future growth?

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 13.9% Undervalued

    With Sirius XM Holdings last closing at $20.67 versus a narrative fair value of $24, the story hinges on profitable growth and disciplined cash returns.

    Ongoing integration of advanced technology including AI driven customer service, content search, and targeted marketing, alongside automation initiatives and workforce realignment, is providing operational efficiencies and lowering costs, setting up for improved net margins over time. Growth in cross platform engagement (in car, app, streaming, and social or video) is driving higher user interaction and satisfaction, sustaining high retention rates among core high value demographics while creating more monetization opportunities, thereby supporting recurring revenue and protecting free cash flow.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how modest top line expectations can still add up to rising earnings, expanding margins, and a lower future multiple than many media peers? The narrative leans on a specific profitability path and shrinking share count to justify that upside gap, but the exact math may surprise you.

    Result: Fair Value of $24 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, persistent subscriber churn and intensifying competition from tech giants could undermine margin expansion assumptions and pressure Sirius XM’s long term earnings trajectory.

    Find out about the key risks to this Sirius XM Holdings narrative.

    Build Your Own Sirius XM Holdings Narrative

    If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in just minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Sirius XM Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.