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    Assessing 4DMedical (ASX:4DX) Valuation After Cleveland Clinic CT:VQ Deal and Rapid US Hospital Adoption

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 09:26:06
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    4DMedical (ASX:4DX) just signed a commercial deal with the Cleveland Clinic for its CT:VQ imaging platform, and investors are taking notice as deployments accelerate across leading U.S. academic hospitals.

    See our latest analysis for 4DMedical.

    The market clearly sees this Cleveland Clinic deal as validation, with a 30 day share price return of roughly 149 percent and a one year total shareholder return above 760 percent. This points to strong, momentum driven optimism about 4DMedical’s long term potential.

    If this kind of hospital adoption story has your attention, it might be a good time to see what else is setting up for growth in healthcare stocks.

    But after such a spectacular run, with earnings still deep in the red and the share price already above analyst targets, is 4DMedical a misunderstood growth story, or are markets already pricing in years of execution perfection?

    Most Popular Narrative: 66.5% Overvalued

    With 4DMedical last closing at A$3.83 against a most popular narrative fair value of A$2.30, expectations for future growth and profitability look extremely ambitious.

    The development and expected FDA approval of the CT:VQ technology, which offers logistical improvements over current nuclear medicine solutions, present a significant opportunity to capture a share of the $1 billion market, potentially enhancing net margins through the provision of superior cost saving technology. Ongoing cost management efforts, as evidenced by an 11 percent reduction in operating expenditure, may improve profitability and contribute to better net margins, leading to improved financial health despite the current cash burn rate.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what justifies such a rich future earnings multiple on a loss making, fast growing imaging business? The narrative leans on explosive revenue expansion, a sharp margin turnaround and a premium profit multiple that would not look out of place in elite healthcare growth names. Curious how those moving parts combine to reach today’s fair value? Dive in to unpack the assumptions powering this valuation story.

    Result: Fair Value of $2.30 (OVERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, that optimism could unravel if cash burn stays high and key US contracts or Philips driven expansion fail to ramp as quickly as expected.

    Find out about the key risks to this 4DMedical narrative.

    Build Your Own 4DMedical Narrative

    If you are not sold on this view or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in minutes, Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your 4DMedical research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 5 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for your next smart idea?

    Do not stop at one compelling story. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to hunt down your next opportunity before everyone else catches on.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.