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    How McCormick’s High-Stakes Q4 Call After Guidance Cut At McCormick (MKC) Has Changed Its Investment Story

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 07:32:53
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    • McCormick & Company has scheduled a conference call and webcast for its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on January 22, 2026, to be led by its top executives and supported by detailed presentation materials on the company’s website.
    • This upcoming announcement takes on added weight because analysts are projecting double-digit earnings growth after a year in which McCormick beat third-quarter expectations yet still reduced its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS outlook amid rising costs.
    • We’ll now examine how heightened expectations around the January earnings call, following a prior guidance cut, may influence McCormick’s investment narrative.

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    McCormick Investment Narrative Recap

    To own McCormick, you generally need to believe in steady global demand for flavor, the resilience of its brands, and its ability to protect margins despite cost pressure. The upcoming January 22 earnings call is a key short term catalyst because it will update how McCormick is balancing cost inflation, guidance credibility and earnings expectations; the main near term risk remains whether higher input and operating costs keep squeezing profitability.

    In this context, the recent decision to raise the quarterly dividend from US$0.45 to US$0.48 per share stands out, as it reinforces McCormick’s income profile just as investors weigh rising cost pressures and the market’s expectation for double digit earnings growth heading into the fourth quarter results.

    Yet investors should not overlook the risk that sustained input cost inflation could force more pricing actions and pressure volumes, especially as retailer consolidation and private label growth...

    Read the full narrative on McCormick (it's free!)

    McCormick's narrative projects $7.7 billion revenue and $1.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.7% yearly revenue growth and about a $224 million earnings increase from $775.6 million today.

    Uncover how McCormick's forecasts yield a $76.17 fair value, a 11% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    MKC 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    MKC 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see McCormick’s fair value between US$74.09 and US$164.28, reflecting very different expectations. You should weigh these against the risk that persistent raw material and tariff related cost pressure could keep margins under strain and shape the company’s longer term earnings power.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on McCormick - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

    Build Your Own McCormick Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.