Did GEO’s New ICE Skip Tracing Deal (GEO) Just Shift Its Detention-Centered Investment Narrative?

• Earlier this month, GEO Group announced that its subsidiary BI Incorporated had been awarded a new U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement contract to provide skip tracing services, starting December 16, 2025, with an initial one-year term and an additional one-year option.
• The deal deepens GEO’s long-running relationship with ICE and extends its reach in non-custodial immigration supervision, an area investors increasingly focus on for more asset-light growth.
• Next, we’ll examine how this new BI skip tracing contract fits into GEO Group’s broader investment narrative built around federal detention demand.

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GEO Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own GEO Group, you need to believe federal detention and immigration supervision remain central government tools, and that GEO can keep winning and renewing contracts within that framework. The new BI skip tracing award modestly reinforces the short term catalyst around non custodial supervision growth, but it does not change the core risk that GEO’s revenue is still heavily exposed to shifts in federal immigration policy and funding.

The BI skip tracing contract, starting in December 2025 with a one year term plus a one year option, directly connects to GEO’s push into asset light immigration monitoring. It complements the existing ISAP electronic monitoring program that investors already watch closely as a potential offset if physical detention growth slows or stalls.

Yet against this opportunity, investors should be aware of how quickly a policy shift or funding cut could...

Read the full narrative on GEO Group (it's free!)

GEO Group’s narrative projects $3.8 billion revenue and $571.5 million earnings by 2028. This implies 15.4% yearly revenue growth and about a $483.1 million earnings increase from $88.4 million today.

Uncover how GEO Group's forecasts yield a $32.25 fair value, a 95% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate GEO’s fair value between US$32.25 and US$37, well above the prevailing share price. Before relying on that gap, you may want to weigh it against GEO’s heavy dependence on federal detention appropriations and the political risk around immigration enforcement that could affect future contract wins and utilization.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on GEO Group - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own GEO Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your GEO Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free GEO Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate GEO Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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