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    Assessing Umicore’s (ENXTBR:UMI) Valuation After a 22% One-Month Share Price Rebound

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 06:17:26
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    Umicore (ENXTBR:UMI) has quietly staged a strong comeback, with the share price up around 22% over the past month and roughly 24% in the past 3 months, catching investors attention.

    See our latest analysis for Umicore.

    Zooming out, the recent 22 percent 1 month share price return at a last close of 17.87 euros sits on top of a powerful year to date share price gain of roughly 76 percent. However, the 3 year total shareholder return is still deeply negative, suggesting momentum has returned as investors reassess both growth prospects and execution risks.

    If Umicore's rebound has you rethinking where the next recovery story could come from, it might be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a curated set of potential new ideas.

    With shares now trading above analyst targets, despite patchy revenue trends but improving profits, the key question is whether Umicore still trades below its true worth or if the market already anticipates a full earnings recovery.

    Most Popular Narrative: 20.9% Overvalued

    With Umicore closing at €17.87 against a most popular narrative fair value of €14.79, investors are weighing a rich valuation against a demanding turnaround story.

    The analysts have a consensus price target of €14.02 for Umicore based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as €344.5 million, while the more cautious expect materially lower outcomes as sector headwinds and execution risks play out.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what is really powering this valuation gap? The narrative leans on a sharp profit reset, resilient margins and a future earnings multiple that might surprise you. Curious which assumptions have to land almost perfectly for that fair value to hold? Read on and test whether those numbers stack up against your own expectations.

    Result: Fair Value of €14.79 (OVERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, sustained EV demand weakness or deeper losses in Battery Materials and Recycling could quickly undercut the margin recovery story that underpins this valuation.

    Find out about the key risks to this Umicore narrative.

    Build Your Own Umicore Narrative

    If you see things differently or want to interrogate the numbers yourself, you can build a tailored view in just minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Umicore research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.