Is ASML (ENXTAM:ASML) Still Undervalued After Its Recent Share Price Rally?

ASML Holding (ENXTAM:ASML) has quietly added to its gains, with the stock up about 11% over the past 3 months and more than 30% this year, inviting a closer look at what investors are pricing in.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.

That steady climb, including a 30.29 percent year to date share price return and a powerful 136.07 percent five year total shareholder return, suggests momentum is building as investors lean into ASML Holding s structural role in advanced chipmaking.

If ASML Holding s run has you thinking about what else could benefit from the semiconductor and AI build out, it might be worth exploring high growth tech and AI stocks.

With shares near €900 and trading at a premium to some valuation models but still below consensus targets, the key question now is clear: is ASML Holding undervalued today, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 10.1% Undervalued

According to Investingwilly, the narrative fair value of €1,000 sits above the last close at €899, framing ASML as a mispriced long term compounder.

With its technological moat, strong balance sheet, and central role in enabling next-gen chips, ASML remains one of the most critical players in the semiconductor value chain. The current weakness may be a rare opportunity to accumulate shares of a company that is essential to the future of computing.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how one investor justifies paying up for this chip powerhouse? The answer mixes robust margins, persistent revenue expansion, and a punchy future earnings multiple.

Result: Fair Value of €1,000 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, even strong moats face pressure, with export controls on China and a possible 2026 demand pause both threatening this upbeat valuation story.

Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.

Another View: DCF Flags Overvaluation

While the narrative fair value points to upside, our DCF model is more cautious. It puts ASML s fair value near €695, well below the €899 share price, implying the stock may already be pricing in a lot of future growth. Which story do you trust more?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ASML Holding for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 904 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own ASML Holding Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or simply prefer to test the assumptions yourself, you can build a personalized view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ASML Holding research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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