Assessing Nutrien’s (TSX:NTR) Valuation After a 41% One-Year Rebound in Fertilizer Markets

Nutrien (TSX:NTR) has quietly climbed about 41% over the past year, helped by steady earnings growth and firmer fertilizer pricing. Now investors are asking whether the recent momentum still leaves upside.

See our latest analysis for Nutrien.

Alongside firmer fertilizer markets, the stock has posted a roughly 33% year to date share price return and a 41.6% one year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum is rebuilding as investors reassess Nutrien’s earnings resilience and valuation.

If Nutrien’s rebound has you rethinking the sector, it could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential next wave opportunities.

With shares now trading near analyst targets and well above last year’s lows, the key question is whether Nutrien still offers undervaluation upside or if the market is already pricing in the company’s next leg of growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 2% Undervalued

With Nutrien last closing at CA$86.84 against a narrative fair value of about CA$88.43, the story leans slightly positive on upside potential.

Operational cost reductions and portfolio optimization: Ongoing SG&A and capex reductions, accelerated cost savings programs, and modernization of distribution structures (especially in Brazil and North America) are already increasing adjusted EBITDA and will structurally enhance net margins and free cash flow generation into 2026.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of margin lift and earnings power this streamlining is targeting, and how that translates into a richer future multiple? The full narrative walks through the revenue path, profitability reset, and valuation math that together underpin this seemingly modest, but very deliberate, upside call.

Result: Fair Value of $88.43 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, mounting regulatory scrutiny and shifts toward regenerative agriculture could curb fertilizer demand, challenging Nutrien’s pricing power and long term growth assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Nutrien narrative.

Build Your Own Nutrien Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in under three minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Nutrien research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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