Open Source Securities: Semiconductors release a signal of price increases. Fab, storage, and simulation are expected to enter a period of rising prices

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that demand for AI has exploded, and a new wave of price increases for semiconductors has arrived. The gap in supply-side production capacity is compounded by increased demand for AI, etc., semiconductors are signaling an upward price cycle, and OEM prices, memory chips, and analog chips are starting price increase plans one after another.

The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:

Fab: The operating rate remains high, and SMIC will take the lead in increasing the price of some products by 10%

In November, TSMC plans to gradually withdraw production capacity from mature processes, and there is a gap on the supply side. Furthermore, as the rapid growth of industries such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and new energy drives rigid demand for mature processes, the capacity utilization rate of fabs such as SMIC and Huahong has maintained a high level of capacity utilization. In Q3 2025, SMIC's capacity utilization rate reached 95.8% (qoq+3.3pct); Huahong's capacity utilization rate reached 109.5% and is actively expanding production capacity.

According to the “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily”, SMIC and World Advanced have recently issued price increase notices to downstream customers, and the current price increase is mainly focused on the 8-inch BCD process platform, with a price increase of about 10%. The BCD process mainly integrates power, analog, and digital signal processing circuits, and the price increase of BCD is also expected to increase the price of processes such as high-voltage CMOS. Combined with the fab's capacity utilization rate and the high downstream boom, the bank expects other fabs with BCD processes to follow up on the price increase plans for related product lines.

Storage: Supply and demand for mainstream storage continues to be tight, and niche storage continues to rise

According to CFM data, since the end of July, the NAND price index has risen 173%, and the DRAM price index has increased 169%. “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily”, 12.10, the storage module manufacturer revealed that currently NAND is far more out of stock than before, and the inventory in the hands of many peers will only last until Q1 2026. In addition, Beijing Junzheng also indicated that prices for some storage and computing chips have been adjusted; contract prices for GigaYi's innovative DRAM products are still rising in Q3 2025, and it is expected that H2's niche DRAM revenue will increase significantly in 2025 compared to the first half of the year.

Simulation: Overseas manufacturers take the lead in increasing prices, and domestic manufacturers are waiting for flowers to blossom

ADI recently issued a price adjustment notice to customers. It plans to launch a price increase mechanism for a full range of products starting February 1, 2026, with an overall average increase of about 15%. Previously, Texas Instruments (TI), the leading analog chip company, took the lead in raising prices in the third quarter, with an increase of 10% to more than 30%. The current ADI price increase is mainly due to cost increases in various areas. Judging from downstream demand, the industrial control and automotive sectors are slowly recovering, and AI data centers are driving demand for high-power, high-current analog chips. The bank believes that next year, as downstream demand continues to recover and AI capital expenditure remains high, there are opportunities for domestic simulation demand and prices to rise.

Beneficial targets: 1) Foundry: SMIC, Huahong, etc.; 2) Storage: Jiang Bolong, Demingli, Baiwei Storage, Shannon Xinchuang, Zhaoyi Innovation, Pran Co., Ltd., Beijing Junzheng, etc.; 3) Simulation: Shengbang Co., Ltd., Nanxin Technology, Aiwei, etc.

Risk warning: The development of the AI industry falls short of expectations, the risk of international trade uncertainty, and macroeconomic development falls short of expectations.