Is New York Times (NYT) Overvalued After Its Recent Share Price Rally?

Recent Performance and What Is Moving the Stock

New York Times (NYT) has quietly put together a strong run, with the stock up about 11% over the past month and roughly 23% in the past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for New York Times.

Zooming out, that recent momentum sits on top of a much stronger backdrop, with New York Times delivering a solid year to date share price return and a standout three year total shareholder return, suggesting investors are steadily pricing in durable digital growth.

If NYT’s run has you thinking about what else could surprise on the upside, this is a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With shares near record highs, a premium price target already met and growth humming along, the key question now is whether New York Times is still trading below its true value or if the market has fully priced in its digital future.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 8% Overvalued

With New York Times last closing at $71.01 versus an implied fair value of about $65.75, the most followed narrative sees the shares running ahead of fundamentals, anchored in a detailed view of digital subscription momentum, margins and future earnings power.

Analyst commentary on New York Times remains broadly constructive, with recent target increases reflecting confidence in the company’s ability to execute on its long term growth strategy. While optimism is prevalent, some observers continue to flag execution and valuation risks as the stock prices in sustained outperformance.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is really baked into that premium price tag? The narrative focuses on compounding revenue, rising margins and a richer earnings multiple. Curious how those moving parts line up over the next few years? Dive in to unpack the full playbook behind this fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $65.75 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, shifts in platform traffic and rising content commoditization through generative AI tools could undercut subscriber growth assumptions and pressure NYT’s premium valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this New York Times narrative.

Another Angle On Value

While the consensus narrative flags New York Times as roughly 8% overvalued on future earnings assumptions and a rich earnings multiple, our DCF model paints a different picture, suggesting fair value closer to $83.83, about 15% above today’s price. Which lens do you trust more, short term multiples or long term cash flows?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out New York Times for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 904 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own New York Times Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your New York Times research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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