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    Did FICO's Expanded Mortgage Direct Licenses Quietly Deepen Its Scoring Moat and Pricing Power (FICO)?

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 01:23:47
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    • In December 2025, FICO announced that Cotality and Ascend Companies joined its FICO Mortgage Direct License Program, enabling participating tri-merge resellers to generate and deliver FICO Scores directly to lenders with more transparent, flexible pricing and improved operational efficiency.
    • This expansion highlights how FICO is embedding itself more deeply into the mortgage infrastructure, potentially reshaping how credit scores are distributed and priced across the lending ecosystem.
    • Next, we’ll examine how expanding direct score delivery through the Mortgage Direct License Program could influence FICO’s long-term investment narrative.

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    Fair Isaac Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Fair Isaac, you need to believe its core scoring and decisioning tools remain central to lenders even as regulation, competition and technology evolve. The Mortgage Direct License Program fits that thesis by tightening FICO’s grip on mortgage workflows, but it does not remove the short term risk that regulators and the FHFA could still broaden lender choice and support alternatives like VantageScore.

    The recent addition of Cotality and Ascend Companies to the Mortgage Direct License Program is most relevant here, because it reinforces how FICO is trying to keep its scores embedded at the point of mortgage origination, a key battleground as lenders weigh traditional scores against newer models and alternative data.

    Yet while this deeper integration supports the story, investors should also be aware that growing regulatory openness to alternative scoring models could...

    Read the full narrative on Fair Isaac (it's free!)

    Fair Isaac's narrative projects $2.9 billion revenue and $1.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 14.3% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $467 million from $632.6 million today.

    Uncover how Fair Isaac's forecasts yield a $2032 fair value, a 17% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    FICO 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    FICO 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Nineteen members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see FICO’s fair value anywhere between about US$957 and US$2,628, with many clustering between roughly US$1,625 and US$2,126. Set against that spread, the push to embed FICO Scores more tightly into mortgage infrastructure through the Mortgage Direct License Program could be an important factor you consider when weighing how durable its core scoring franchise might be over time.

    Explore 19 other fair value estimates on Fair Isaac - why the stock might be worth as much as 52% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Fair Isaac Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.