Should TTD’s Nasdaq-100 Exit and Targeted Layoffs Reframe How Investors View Trade Desk’s Execution?

• The Trade Desk was removed from the Nasdaq-100 index on December 22, 2025, following recent attention around its earnings outperformance and a small, skills-focused layoff round.
• This combination of index exclusion and workforce reshaping highlights how operational execution and shifting investor perception can interact for a major ad-tech platform.
• We’ll now examine how Trade Desk’s removal from the Nasdaq-100 could influence its investment narrative, including growth, risk, and positioning.

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Trade Desk Investment Narrative Recap

To own Trade Desk, you need to believe in continued shifts toward data driven advertising on the open internet and connected TV, supported by the company’s execution and platform quality. Its removal from the Nasdaq 100 may create some short term flow driven volatility, but it does not appear to alter the core growth drivers or the key risk that large brand clients could trim ad budgets in tougher macro conditions.

The most directly relevant recent development is Trade Desk’s confirmed, small, skills focused layoff round, which accompanies its index exit and follows a period of earnings outperformance. While the company framed this as an adjustment in capabilities, investors will likely watch closely to see whether this staffing change supports ongoing product innovation in areas like CTV and AI tools such as Kokai, which many view as central to the near term catalyst.

Yet investors should be aware that the growing dominance of walled gardens could still limit how much share Trade Desk can realistically gain from the open internet...

Read the full narrative on Trade Desk (it's free!)

Trade Desk's narrative projects $4.3 billion revenue and $823.2 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Trade Desk's forecasts yield a $62.33 fair value, a 64% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirty nine members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Trade Desk’s fair value anywhere between US$34 and about US$111, with several clusters around the US$50 to US$80 range. You can set those diverse views against concerns that large global advertisers might cut digital ad spend in tougher macro conditions, which could weigh on Trade Desk’s ability to convert its product strengths into sustained financial performance.

Explore 39 other fair value estimates on Trade Desk - why the stock might be worth 11% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Trade Desk Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Trade Desk research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Trade Desk research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Trade Desk's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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