T1 Energy (T1) Valuation After Treaty Oak Deal and G2_Austin Solar Cell Fab Expansion

T1 Energy, headquartered in Austin, just paired a three year, 900MW supply deal with Treaty Oak Clean Energy with construction on its G2_Austin cell fab, and the market noticed. Let us unpack why.

See our latest analysis for T1 Energy.

That Treaty Oak contract and the G2_Austin build out help explain why the 30 day share price return has surged 124.52 percent and year to date share price momentum of 158.24 percent contrasts with a still negative 5 year total shareholder return. This suggests sentiment has flipped from skepticism to early growth optimism.

If this kind of clean energy build out has your attention, it might be worth exploring other potential beneficiaries across high growth tech and AI stocks to see where similar momentum is starting to form.

With revenue growing fast, losses narrowing, and the stock still trading at a material discount to analyst targets and intrinsic value metrics, investors now face a pivotal question: Is this a genuine buying opportunity, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 3.4% Undervalued

With T1 Energy last closing at $7.05 against a narrative fair value of $7.30, the story leans slightly positive and hinges on aggressive growth assumptions.

The development of the 5 GW G2_Austin facility and ramp-up at G1_Dallas are creating line-of-sight to significant capacity expansion, allowing T1 to capitalize on the electricity demand supercycle and scale EBITDA meaningfully over the coming years as new production comes online.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a capital intensive, still unprofitable manufacturer ends up with a higher fair value than today’s price, while using a double digit discount rate and assuming future margins and earnings power that look very different from the past, all built on rapid top line expansion and a re rated profit base?

Result: Fair Value of $7.30 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upside depends heavily on generous U.S. policy support and smooth financing for G2_Austin. Any disruption here could quickly undermine the growth case.

Find out about the key risks to this T1 Energy narrative.

Another Way Of Looking At Value

While the narrative fair value of $7.30 suggests mild upside, the market is also paying 3.7 times sales for T1 Energy, which is richer than the US Electrical industry at 2.2 times and above a 2.9 times fair ratio. That gap points to real valuation downside if growth stumbles.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own T1 Energy Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to ground your view in your own numbers, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your T1 Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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