For many, the main point of investing in the stock market is to achieve spectacular returns. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. For example, the Dexerials Corporation (TSE:4980) share price is up a whopping 516% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. If that doesn't get you thinking about long term investing, we don't know what will. On top of that, the share price is up 24% in about a quarter. We love happy stories like this one. The company should be really proud of that performance!
In light of the stock dropping 3.7% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Over half a decade, Dexerials managed to grow its earnings per share at 58% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 44% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Dexerials the TSR over the last 5 years was 594%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
Dexerials provided a TSR of 18% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. It's probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 47% over five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Dexerials has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are significant) we think you should know about.
We will like Dexerials better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.