The Bull Case For Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Could Change Following Higher Guidance And Bigger Buybacks And Dividend – Learn Why

• In December 2025, Ferguson Enterprises reported first-quarter 2025 results showing higher sales and net income year over year, raised full-year net sales guidance to about 5% growth, completed a buyback of 27.68 million shares for US$4.24 billion, and announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.89, 7% above the prior year.
• This combination of earnings growth, increased cash returns through both dividends and repurchases, and updated guidance highlighted management’s confidence in the business despite ongoing residential market pressures.
• We’ll now examine how the stronger earnings and higher dividend payout reshape Ferguson Enterprises’ investment narrative and long-term return profile.

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Ferguson Enterprises Investment Narrative Recap

To own Ferguson Enterprises, you need to believe it can convert its scale in plumbing, HVAC and infrastructure projects into steady earnings, even with a soft residential backdrop. The latest quarter’s higher sales and net income, alongside raised 2025 net sales guidance, support that case but do not remove the short term risk that weaker residential demand or commodity-led deflation could pressure margins if conditions worsen.

The completion of a US$4.24 billion buyback, retiring 13.2% of shares since 2021, is particularly relevant here. For current shareholders, a lower share count amplifies the impact of any future earnings growth and aligns closely with the near term catalyst of improving profitability, while also intensifying the importance of Ferguson executing well on its growth investments and cost controls.

Yet investors should also be aware that continued weakness in residential end markets could still...

Read the full narrative on Ferguson Enterprises (it's free!)

Ferguson Enterprises' narrative projects $36.5 billion revenue and $2.4 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 6.5% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $0.8 billion from $1.6 billion.

Uncover how Ferguson Enterprises' forecasts yield a $259.91 fair value, a 13% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Ferguson’s fair value between US$224.90 and US$267.24, highlighting a fairly tight cluster of views. Against this, ongoing residential market softness and commodity led deflation remain key issues that could influence how those valuations hold up over time, so it makes sense to compare several perspectives before forming a view.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Ferguson Enterprises - why the stock might be worth just $224.90!

Build Your Own Ferguson Enterprises Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Ferguson Enterprises research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Ferguson Enterprises research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Ferguson Enterprises' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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