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    Rising Short Interest Amid Bullish Analyst Views Might Change The Case For Investing In TDG

    Simply Wall St·12/22/2025 23:29:56
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    • In recent days, analysts reaffirmed a positive view on TransDigm Group, pointing to its strong pricing power, disciplined execution in the commercial aerospace aftermarket, and healthy core business that has delivered solid organic revenue and earnings growth.
    • An interesting twist is that short interest in TransDigm has risen even as Wall Street’s outlook remains favorable, highlighting a split between bullish analysts and more cautious traders.
    • Against this backdrop of rising short interest and upbeat analyst commentary, we’ll explore how these developments may influence TransDigm’s investment narrative.

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    TransDigm Group Investment Narrative Recap

    To own TransDigm, you need to believe in the durability of its high margin aerospace aftermarket business and its ability to keep exercising pricing power. The recent rise in short interest does not materially change the near term catalyst, which still centers on execution against its FY 2026 outlook, or the key risk tied to its highly leveraged balance sheet and interest expense.

    The most relevant development here is management’s FY 2026 guidance, which calls for higher sales but lower net income at the midpoint due to increased interest costs. That tension between growth and financing expense sits right at the intersection of bullish analyst sentiment and more cautious short sellers, and helps explain why some market participants are focusing as much on the balance sheet as on the core business.

    Yet behind the strong aftermarket story, TransDigm’s elevated leverage and rising interest costs are something investors should be aware of as...

    Read the full narrative on TransDigm Group (it's free!)

    TransDigm Group's narrative projects $10.8 billion revenue and $2.5 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 8.0% yearly revenue growth and about a $0.7 billion earnings increase from $1.8 billion today.

    Uncover how TransDigm Group's forecasts yield a $1581 fair value, a 21% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TDG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TDG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Five members of the Simply Wall St Community value TransDigm between US$1,121 and US$1,581 per share, highlighting very different expectations. When you set those views against the company’s rising interest burden and leveraged balance sheet, it becomes even more important to compare several perspectives on how that might affect future performance.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on TransDigm Group - why the stock might be worth 14% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own TransDigm Group Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.