The Bull Case For Vital Farms (VITL) Could Change Following Revised 2025 Guidance And 2026 Outlook

• Earlier in December 2025, Vital Farms updated its 2025 earnings guidance to US$755 million–US$765 million in net revenue, citing temporary ordering disruptions following an ERP transition, and issued a 2026 outlook of US$930 million–US$950 million in net revenue.
• The company’s guidance reset and longer-term revenue ambitions highlight a tension between short-term demand softness in premium eggs and management’s confidence in capacity expansion and brand-driven growth.
• Next, we’ll explore how Vital Farms’ revised 2025 guidance and robust 2026 outlook may reshape its existing investment narrative.

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Vital Farms Investment Narrative Recap

To own Vital Farms, you need to believe that demand for premium, pasture raised eggs and related products can support ongoing capacity investments while protecting margins. The updated 2025 guidance to US$755 million–US$765 million in net revenue points to softer near term demand and ERP related disruption, but management’s 2026 outlook suggests they still view expansion and brand strength as the key near term catalyst. The biggest current risk remains that elevated spending and new capacity run ahead of actual demand.

Among the recent announcements, Vital Farms’ inclusion in the S&P 600, S&P 600 Consumer Staples, S&P 1000 and S&P Composite 1500 is particularly relevant. Index membership can increase the stock’s visibility and improve liquidity at the same time that the company is stepping up capital expenditure for new facilities, which may amplify both the upside from successful ramp up and the downside if premium egg demand or pricing power disappoints.

Yet even with the confident 2026 revenue outlook, investors should be aware that rising capacity and spending could collide with...

Read the full narrative on Vital Farms (it's free!)

Vital Farms’ narrative projects $1.2 billion revenue and $103.0 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Vital Farms' forecasts yield a $49.45 fair value, a 48% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$40 to over US$305 per share, showing how far opinions can stretch. When you set those views against Vital Farms’ stepped up capacity spending and the risk that demand for premium eggs lags expectations, it becomes even more important to compare several perspectives before deciding how this business fits in your portfolio.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Vital Farms - why the stock might be worth just $40.34!

Build Your Own Vital Farms Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Vital Farms research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Vital Farms research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Vital Farms' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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