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    How Stronger Margins and Analyst Upgrades At Blue Bird (BLBD) Have Changed Its Investment Story

    Simply Wall St·12/22/2025 19:12:34
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    • In recent days, Blue Bird reported robust quarterly results with higher revenue and net profit, alongside long-term sales growth and expanding margins that have supported renewed investor optimism. Analysts have responded with stronger positive ratings and outlooks, citing the company’s leadership in alternative-power school buses, a rebounding backlog, and improved operational efficiency.
    • We’ll now examine how this improving analyst sentiment, supported by better margins and cash flow, reshapes Blue Bird’s existing investment narrative.

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    Blue Bird Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Blue Bird today, you need to believe its lead in alternative power school buses, recent backlog rebound and margin gains can translate into steady, profitable growth despite policy and funding uncertainty. The latest earnings strength and improving analyst sentiment reinforce the near term catalyst of cleaner bus adoption, but do little to reduce the key risk that government incentives or school district budgets could shift and slow orders.

    Among the recent updates, the reaffirmed 2026 net revenue guidance of about US$1.5 billion stands out, as it ties directly into the growth story that analysts are backing. It underpins confidence in Blue Bird’s ability to convert a healthier backlog and operational improvements into sustained revenue, which matters if investors are counting on ongoing fleet replacement and alternative power demand as the primary drivers.

    Yet behind the upbeat guidance and analyst enthusiasm, investors should be aware that Blue Bird’s reliance on government incentive programs for EV and alternative fuel buses could...

    Read the full narrative on Blue Bird (it's free!)

    Blue Bird's narrative projects $1.6 billion revenue and $152.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.0% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $36 million from $115.9 million today.

    Uncover how Blue Bird's forecasts yield a $63.75 fair value, a 23% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    BLBD 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    BLBD 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Three members of the Simply Wall St Community currently value Blue Bird between US$63.75 and US$94.81 per share, highlighting a wide spread of expectations. When you set these differing views against the company’s dependence on ongoing clean bus incentives, it underlines why exploring several perspectives on Blue Bird’s future performance can be so important.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Blue Bird - why the stock might be worth as much as 83% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Blue Bird Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.