Does MMG (SEHK:1208) Rosebery Offtake Deal Reinforce Strategic Discipline or Heighten Governance Questions?

• MMG Limited has announced that, on 16 December 2025, its subsidiary entered into the Rosebery Concentrate Sales Agreement to sell 100% of Rosebery’s 2026–2027 production, estimated at 6,000 dry metric tonnes per year, to Minmetals North-Europe, an associate of its controlling shareholder CMC.
• The deal, awarded via a competitive tender and priced on terms described as superior to independent bids, secures offtake with a specialist smelter while operating as a connected transaction under Hong Kong Listing Rules without requiring independent shareholder approval.
• We’ll now examine how locking in all Rosebery production with a connected-party buyer for 2026–2027 may reshape MMG’s investment narrative.

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MMG Investment Narrative Recap

To own MMG today, you need to believe the group can keep growing copper-led earnings while managing concentration at Las Bambas and heavy capital commitments. The Rosebery offtake deal looks immaterial to the key short term catalyst of stable Peruvian production and to the primary risk around Las Bambas community disruption, but it does slightly improve revenue visibility at the margin.

The recent reshaping of MMG’s leadership, including the December 2025 appointment of a new Chairman and COO, is more relevant for the investment story than the Rosebery agreement itself. A relatively new management team now has to execute on multiple growth projects while keeping Las Bambas running reliably, which sits at the heart of most bullish or cautious views on the shares.

Yet investors should also weigh how concentrated dependence on Las Bambas exposes MMG to operational and political risk if...

Read the full narrative on MMG (it's free!)

MMG's narrative projects $6.8 billion revenue and $833.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 8.0% yearly revenue growth and a $352.3 million earnings increase from $480.8 million today.

Uncover how MMG's forecasts yield a HK$6.35 fair value, a 28% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

One Simply Wall St Community member values MMG at HK$6.35, underlining how a single private forecast can diverge sharply from recent share price strength. You may want to compare that with how heavily MMG still relies on Las Bambas for profit contribution and what that concentration could mean for future results.

Explore another fair value estimate on MMG - why the stock might be worth 28% less than the current price!

Build Your Own MMG Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your MMG research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free MMG research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate MMG's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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