Wall Street stock market forecasters have always been known for being bullish, but their current level of expectations for 2026 is worrying some market watchers. According to the data, sell-side strategists from major institutions showed the most concentrated distribution trend for the S&P 500 index at the end of the year in the past ten years. Among them, Oppenheimer predicted a high of 8,100 points, and Stifel Nicolaus & Co. predicted a low of 7,000 points. The difference in annual expectations was only 16%. Such an agreement is often viewed as a reverse signal — when everyone is leaning in the same direction, the imbalance often corrects itself. However, the current market risk is already evident. The inflation rate continues to be higher than the Federal Reserve's target, putting the market's expectations of monetary policy easing at risk of falling short. The unemployment rate has been rising steadily in recent months, and huge AI spending has yet to be converted into real benefits. Despite this, on average, strategists still expect US stocks to rise by about 11% in 2026, even after three consecutive years of double-digit returns.

Wall Street stock market forecasters have always been known for being bullish, but their current level of expectations for 2026 is worrying some market watchers. According to the data, sell-side strategists from major institutions showed the most concentrated distribution trend for the S&P 500 index at the end of the year in the past ten years. Among them, Oppenheimer predicted a high of 8,100 points, and Stifel Nicolaus & Co. predicted a low of 7,000 points. The difference in annual expectations was only 16%. Such an agreement is often viewed as a reverse signal — when everyone is leaning in the same direction, the imbalance often corrects itself. However, the current market risk is already evident. The inflation rate continues to be higher than the Federal Reserve's target, putting the market's expectations of monetary policy easing at risk of falling short. The unemployment rate has been rising steadily in recent months, and huge AI spending has yet to be converted into real benefits. Despite this, on average, strategists still expect US stocks to rise by about 11% in 2026, even after three consecutive years of double-digit returns.