Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Is Up 7.1% After Stock Split, Permian Deal And AI Data Center Push

• Earlier this month, Texas Pacific Land Corporation announced a 3-for-1 stock split effective December 23, 2025, alongside a US$505 million cash purchase of 17,306 net royalty acres and 8,147 surface acres to expand its Permian Basin footprint.
• The company also revealed a partnership with Bolt Data & Energy to develop AI-focused data center campuses on its West Texas land, marking a move to pair its royalty and water assets with digital infrastructure exposure.
• Next, we’ll examine how Texas Pacific Land’s AI data center partnership with Bolt could reshape its investment narrative and risk profile.

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Texas Pacific Land Investment Narrative Recap

To own Texas Pacific Land, you have to believe its royalty and water businesses in the Permian Basin can keep compounding cash flows, even as energy cycles fluctuate. The AI data center partnership and stock split do not fundamentally change that near term; the key catalyst remains how effectively TPL can convert its vast land and water position into durable, fee-based income, while the biggest risk is whether investors are overpaying for that potential given its premium valuation.

Among recent announcements, the Bolt Data & Energy partnership is most relevant, because it introduces an additional way to monetize TPL’s West Texas acreage and water through equity, warrants and water supply rights. This new leg of infrastructure exposure sits on top of its royalty and water base, and could reinforce the narrative of expanding, diversified revenue streams if it scales, but it also adds execution and capital allocation questions on top of already rich earnings multiples.

Yet beneath the appeal of AI-linked optionality, investors should be aware that TPL’s high price to earnings multiple and premium to peers could quickly magnify any setback in...

Read the full narrative on Texas Pacific Land (it's free!)

Texas Pacific Land's narrative projects $895.3 million revenue and $610.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.2% yearly revenue growth and about a $150 million earnings increase from $460.2 million today.

Uncover how Texas Pacific Land's forecasts yield a $842.50 fair value, a 6% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirteen fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$400 to almost US$1,800 per share, underscoring how far apart investor opinions can be. Against that backdrop, TPL’s premium earnings multiple and new AI data center exposure invite you to weigh how much growth and diversification you believe the business can genuinely deliver over time.

Explore 13 other fair value estimates on Texas Pacific Land - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Texas Pacific Land Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Texas Pacific Land research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Texas Pacific Land research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Texas Pacific Land's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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