Time to buy this ASX dividend share now it's down 14%

Sometimes, boring is beautiful. This ASX dividend share doesn't sell flashy tech, mine lithium or promise AI-fuelled riches.

What Metcash Ltd (ASX: MTS) does offer is something many investors are craving right now: a chunky dividend yield, a modest share price and a business model built to grind on, even when times are tough.

The price of the ASX dividend share took a tumble in the past month with 14% to $3.28 at the time of writing. This year it has lost 5.5%, compared to a 5.7% gain for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

At current levels, Metcash shares look more appealing than exciting — and that's precisely the point.

Dividend drawcard

Metcash sits behind some of Australia's most familiar retail brands. It's the wholesaler powering independent supermarkets under the IGA banner, as well as foodservice businesses, liquor retailers and hardware chains such as Mitre 10 and Home Timber & Hardware.

The biggest drawcard is the dividend. Metcash has built a reputation as a reliable payer, and its dividend yield looks attractive compared with many larger ASX names that have either trimmed payouts or failed to grow them meaningfully.

With the share price sitting at relatively low levels, that yield looks even more compelling at 5.5%. Investors aren't paying up for blue-sky growth — they're being paid to wait. In a market still jittery about interest rates and consumer spending, that steady income stream matters.

Squeezing suppliers, cautious shoppers

Let's be clear, Metcash is not a growth rocket. It operates in fiercely competitive markets, with supermarket giants constantly squeezing suppliers and shoppers watching every dollar. If consumer spending weakens sharply, volumes can come under pressure.

Metcash won't make you rich overnight. But at a low share price, with an appealing dividend yield and solid long-term prospects, it's doing exactly what many ASX investors want right now. The ASX dividend share is paying them reliably while keeping risk in check.

Increasing dividend payouts

UBS projects the ASX dividend share to increase its payout every year between FY25 to FY29. That could be great news for investors focused on passive income.

Early December, the company highlighted that its latest dividend will be worth 8.5 cents per share. It will come fully franked, as the payouts from Metcash tend to do.

This dividend matches last year's interim payout, but it is lower than the 9.5 cents per share final dividend investors enjoyed back in August.

What next for the ASX dividend share?

Most analysts also predict moderate to strong upside from Metcash's current share price with the maximum potential upside at 43%.

The average 12-months price target has been set at $3.93, which suggests a share price gain of almost 20%. That could lift total Metcash earnings, including dividends, past the 25% mark.  

The post Time to buy this ASX dividend share now it's down 14% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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