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To own Boliden, you need to believe in the long term demand for responsibly produced base metals and in Boliden’s ability to run complex mines and smelters safely, efficiently and within tightening ESG expectations. The ABB upgrade at Aitik supports this narrative, but it does not change the fact that the most important near term catalyst remains execution on major growth projects like Odda, while regulatory and permitting risk around mines and tailings facilities stays a key overhang.
Among recent announcements, the EU Commission’s approval of Boliden’s acquisition of Neves Corvo (Somincor) and Zinkgruvan stands out in this context, because it materially increases the group’s exposure to both the upside of higher volumes and the downside of higher net reclamation and debt related obligations. When combined with Aitik’s more advanced tailings monitoring and automation, the investment case increasingly hinges on how well Boliden can balance growth with tightening environmental and permitting requirements.
However, investors should also be aware that tighter ESG rules and any shift in environmental permitting at sites like Aitik could...
Read the full narrative on Boliden (it's free!)
Boliden's narrative projects SEK108.9 billion revenue and SEK10.8 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 6.0% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about SEK2.8 billion from SEK8.0 billion today.
Uncover how Boliden's forecasts yield a SEK433.47 fair value, a 13% downside to its current price.
Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Boliden’s fair value anywhere between SEK200 and SEK734 per share, reflecting very different expectations. Against that backdrop, the company’s ability to keep large projects like Odda and Aitik on track, while managing higher reclamation and permitting risks, may prove crucial for how those views evolve over time.
Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Boliden - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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