Is SES (SES) Quietly Recasting Its Growth Story Around NDAA-Compliant Drone Batteries?

• In recent days, SES AI Corporation and Korea-based Top Material announced plans to collaborate on expanding lithium-metal and lithium-ion cell manufacturing capacity in Korea for drones and urban air mobility, aiming to build an NDAA-compliant, cost-efficient supply chain under a non-binding agreement targeting a definitive deal by early 2026.
• SES AI also outlined plans to nearly triple output at its Chungju plant to around 1 million AI-enabled pouch cells annually, highlighting how drones and urban air mobility are becoming central to the company’s growth focus beyond electric vehicles.
• We’ll now examine how this push to nearly triple Chungju capacity for NDAA-compliant drone batteries could reshape SES AI’s investment narrative.

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SES AI Investment Narrative Recap

To own SES AI, you have to believe its AI-enabled lithium-metal technology can convert small current revenues into a sustainable commercial business across EVs, ESS, and now drones and UAM. The Top Material collaboration and Chungju expansion reinforce the near term drone catalyst but do not remove key risks around cash burn, profitable scaling, and dependence on a few large customers.

The upcoming Battery World 2025 update on Molecular Universe 1.5 and the on premise AI solution ties directly into SES AI’s thesis that software can drive higher value battery contracts. How effectively the company converts this AI platform from trials into recurring customer commitments now sits alongside NDAA compliant drone demand as a central catalyst for the story.

Yet, while Chungju expansion targets NDAA compliant growth, investors should also be aware of the risk that ongoing cash burn and heavy investment needs could...

Read the full narrative on SES AI (it's free!)

SES AI's narrative projects $199.7 million revenue and $19.9 million earnings by 2028. This implies 160.0% yearly revenue growth and a $119.7 million earnings increase from -$99.8 million today.

Uncover how SES AI's forecasts yield a $3.00 fair value, a 55% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Ten members of the Simply Wall St Community currently place SES AI’s fair value anywhere between US$1.44 and US$78.38 per share. Before judging that spread, consider how much hinges on SES AI proving Molecular Universe can win and retain large commercial contracts at scale.

Explore 10 other fair value estimates on SES AI - why the stock might be worth 25% less than the current price!

Build Your Own SES AI Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your SES AI research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free SES AI research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate SES AI's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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