Mission Produce (AVO) Margin Improvement Supports Bullish Infrastructure Narrative Despite Flat EPS Trajectory

Mission Produce (AVO) has just closed out FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of $319 million and basic EPS of $0.23, alongside trailing twelve month revenue of about $1.4 billion and EPS of roughly $0.53. The company has seen quarterly revenue move from $324 million in Q3 FY 2024 to $334 million, $380 million, $357.7 million and then $319 million through FY 2025. Over the same period, quarterly EPS has tracked from $0.17 to $0.05, $0.04, $0.21 and $0.23, setting up a story where modestly improving margins, not just volume, are doing more of the heavy lifting for shareholders.

See our full analysis for Mission Produce.

With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to line them up against the most common narratives around Mission Produce to see which storylines these results support and which ones they quietly push back on.

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Margins Steady At 2.7 percent Despite Revenue Dip

• On a trailing basis, net profit margin sits at 2.7 percent versus 2.1 percent a year earlier, even though quarterly revenue slipped from about 380.3 million dollars in Q2 FY 2025 to 319 million dollars in Q4.
• Consensus narrative highlights investments in ripening and logistics infrastructure as key margin drivers. The margin uplift from 2.1 percent to 2.7 percent lines up with that view, yet:
  • Quarterly net income excluding extra items was 16 million dollars in Q4 FY 2025 compared with 17.3 million dollars in Q4 FY 2024, showing that profitability can still be sensitive to pricing and volume swings.
  • Over the last 12 months, net income of 37.7 million dollars is only modestly above the 36.7 million dollars a year earlier, so the operational upgrades are helping but have not yet translated into a step change in absolute profit.

Analysts watching Mission Produce will want to see whether these margin gains hold if avocado prices and volumes move against them again. 🐻 Mission Produce Bear Case

One Year Earnings Surge, Five Year Track Still Negative

• Trailing earnings grew 66.7 percent over the past year while the longer term five year trend shows an annualized decline of 8.1 percent, and trailing EPS of roughly 0.53 dollars sits only slightly above the 0.52 dollar level a year earlier.
• Consensus narrative points to proprietary farming and new crops like blueberries as long term growth engines. The recent 66.7 percent earnings jump fits that optimistic angle, but:
  • On a trailing basis, net income excluding extra items was 37.7 million dollars at FY 2025 year end versus 36.7 million dollars a year before, a much smaller improvement than the percentage label might suggest in dollar terms.
  • Analysts expect earnings to reach about 40.7 million dollars by around 2028, which is only modestly above the 39 million dollar level implied in the forecasts today, so the step up from here still looks gradual rather than explosive.

Bulls arguing that Mission is entering a new growth phase will need to square this mixed earnings history with their long term expectations. 🐂 Mission Produce Bull Case

Valuation Balances 23.9x P E With 31.3 percent Upside

• Shares at 13.20 dollars trade on a P E of about 23.9 times, above the broader US Food industry at 20.2 times but below a 45.1 times peer average, while analysts see scope to 17.33 dollars, roughly 31.3 percent higher.
• Consensus narrative suggests Mission is building pricing power through global infrastructure and sourcing, and the market seems to be partially pricing that in, yet:
  • Analysts assume revenue will decline by about 9.4 percent per year over the next three years, which means the 23.9 times multiple is being paid for margin expansion rather than top line growth.
  • To justify the 17.33 dollar price target, forecasts imply a future P E of 35.1 times on 2028 earnings, noticeably above the current 23.9 times and the US Food industry at 19.5 times, so much of the upside case depends on investors accepting a richer valuation over time.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Mission Produce on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

See the numbers differently? Use that perspective to build your own narrative in just a few minutes, then share it with the community: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Mission Produce.

See What Else Is Out There

Mission Produce pairs modest margin gains with choppy earnings trends and a valuation that leans heavily on future multiple expansion rather than proven profit growth.

If that reliance on an unproven earnings ramp feels risky, use our stable growth stocks screener (2105 results) to quickly focus on companies already delivering consistent, cycle tested revenue and profit compounding.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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