A Look at Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA)’s Valuation After New Zgounder and Boumadine Technical Reports

Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA) is back on traders radars after filing fresh technical reports that extend Zgounder s mine life to 2036 and outline new economics for the Boumadine project in Morocco.

See our latest analysis for Aya Gold & Silver.

That backdrop of longer mine life and fresh drill results helps explain why Aya s 1 month share price return is 35.66 percent and its year to date share price return sits at 71.42 percent, with a 1 year total shareholder return of 77.58 percent, suggesting momentum is still firmly building rather than fading.

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With Aya still trading at a roughly 29 percent discount to analyst targets after a huge run, the real debate now is whether this remains an undervalued growth story or if the market is already pricing in the next leg of expansion.

Most Popular Narrative: 18.6% Undervalued

With Aya Gold & Silver last closing at CA$19.25 against an implied fair value near CA$23.65, the most followed narrative leans toward meaningful upside, built on aggressive growth and richer metal price assumptions.

The upcoming Boumadine PEA (scheduled for Q4 2025) is expected to establish Boumadine as a Tier 1 asset and set the stage for transformational growth, expanding Aya's production profile and potentially attracting a higher valuation relative to peers with less project visibility, ultimately improving future cash flow and profitability.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue surge, margin expansion, and future earnings multiple are baked into that fair value, and why they outrun typical metals names? The narrative hides some surprisingly bold forecasts about how fast output can scale, how profitable those ounces become, and what sort of premium the market might one day pay for them.

Result: Fair Value of $23.65 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent ore grade challenges or a sharp pullback in silver prices could quickly puncture those bullish assumptions and compress Aya's valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Aya Gold & Silver narrative.

Another View: Rich on Sales

While the narrative fair value points to upside, Aya already trades on a steep 14.6x price to sales versus 6.7x for the Canadian metals and mining group and a 3.5x fair ratio. This implies the market is paying up heavily for growth that still needs to be delivered.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Aya Gold & Silver Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to test your own thesis against the numbers, you can build a fresh view in under three minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Aya Gold & Silver research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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