Northern Trust (NTRS): Reassessing Valuation After a 41% One-Year Share Price Rally

Northern Trust (NTRS) has quietly outperformed many financial peers this year, with shares up roughly 41% over the past year and about 34% year to date, prompting fresh interest in its valuation.

See our latest analysis for Northern Trust.

That strong run has been punctuated by a recent 10.9% 1 month share price return and a 41.4% 1 year total shareholder return, suggesting momentum is building as investors reassess Northern Trust's growth and risk profile.

If Northern Trust's rerating has you thinking about what else might be gaining traction, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

Yet with Northern Trust now trading above analyst targets and at a premium to some peers, investors must ask whether the rally still leaves room for upside or if the market is already pricing in its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 3% Overvalued

With Northern Trust last closing at $138.33 against a narrative fair value of about $134.36, the story leans toward a modestly optimistic pricing gap.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $117.786 for Northern Trust based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $135.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $101.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how flatlined revenue, thinner margins and lower future earnings can still justify a richer multiple than today, even after discounting those cash flows? The full narrative unpacks the projections behind that call.

Result: Fair Value of $134.36 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, several upside risks remain, including faster than expected growth in alternatives and successful AI driven efficiency gains that could sustain margins beyond current forecasts.

Find out about the key risks to this Northern Trust narrative.

Build Your Own Northern Trust Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a personalized narrative in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Northern Trust research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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