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    Will PADCEV–Keytruda Trial Success in Bladder Cancer Change Pfizer's (PFE) Pipeline-Driven Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·12/19/2025 11:21:28
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    • Astellas Pharma and Pfizer recently reported that their Phase 3 EV-304 trial of PADCEV plus Keytruda in muscle-invasive bladder cancer met key efficacy and safety endpoints versus standard cisplatin-based chemotherapy.
    • This oncology success arrives just as Pfizer is guiding for softer 2026 revenues and earnings, underlining management’s reliance on pipeline progress to offset COVID-19 and patent headwinds.
    • We’ll now examine how Pfizer’s cautious 2026 guidance, set against this positive PADCEV–Keytruda data, reshapes the company’s broader investment narrative.

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    Pfizer Investment Narrative Recap

    To stay in Pfizer for the long haul, you need to believe that its oncology and obesity bets can eventually replace fading COVID-19 and patent‑exposed revenues, while the company maintains enough financial flexibility to fund R&D and its dividend. The new PADCEV plus Keytruda Phase 3 win strengthens the oncology story, but it does not change the key near term swing factor, which remains management’s ability to execute through the 2026 guidance reset and upcoming patent cliff.

    Among recent updates, Pfizer’s cautious 2026 outlook is most relevant here: management is now guiding to US$59.5 billion to US$62.5 billion in revenue, explicitly tying softer near term expectations to declining COVID product sales and loss of exclusivity. Against that backdrop, the PADCEV data matters less as an immediate earnings driver and more as evidence that oncology assets from past deals are starting to support the longer term pipeline‑led turnaround investors are watching for.

    Yet against this improving trial news, investors still need to weigh the unresolved risk around upcoming patent expirations and what they could mean for...

    Read the full narrative on Pfizer (it's free!)

    Pfizer’s narrative projects $59.6 billion revenue and $12.8 billion earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Pfizer's forecasts yield a $29.08 fair value, a 16% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    PFE 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    PFE 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    More bearish analysts saw Pfizer’s future very differently, expecting revenues to slip toward about US$56.1 billion and relying heavily on new R&D assets to fill the gap, so this latest PADCEV result may or may not shift their more cautious view on how quickly the pipeline can really offset those looming losses.

    Explore 32 other fair value estimates on Pfizer - why the stock might be worth just $24.00!

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.