Will Strong Q3 2025 Beat and Tech Messaging Shift Expedia Group's (EXPE) Competitive Narrative?

• Earlier in December, Expedia Group reported a strong third quarter for 2025 and presented at the WiresConnect conference in the United States, where Dani Monaghan highlighted the company’s global online travel portfolio spanning brands such as Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo and Trivago.
• This combination of outperformance against expectations and clearer communication on Expedia’s technology-driven travel platform has sharpened investor focus on its competitive positioning versus peers like Booking Holdings.
• We’ll now examine how Expedia’s stronger-than-expected third quarter results reshape its investment narrative, particularly around earnings resilience and competitive standing.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 29 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.

Expedia Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own Expedia Group, you need to believe that its broad travel platform and technology investments can translate into resilient earnings despite a mixed U.S. travel backdrop and intense competition. The strong third quarter of 2025 supports that view in the near term and meaningfully reinforces the key short term catalyst around earnings resilience, but it does not remove the ongoing risk that softer U.S. travel demand and price sensitivity could pressure margins.

The most relevant recent development here is Expedia’s stronger than expected third quarter, which lifted revenue to US$4,412 million and net income to US$959 million while prompting management to raise full year 2025 revenue growth guidance to 6 percent to 7 percent. That upside performance, and the stock’s 17.6 percent move on the news, has sharpened attention on whether Expedia’s unified platform and AI centric product roadmap can keep offsetting lingering softness in core consumer brands like Vrbo and Hotels.com.

Yet beneath the strong quarter, investors should still be aware of the risk that a softer, promotion heavy U.S. travel market could...

Read the full narrative on Expedia Group (it's free!)

Expedia Group's narrative projects $16.9 billion revenue and $2.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 6.4% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.0 billion earnings increase from $1.1 billion today.

Uncover how Expedia Group's forecasts yield a $270.24 fair value, a 5% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Nine fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$133 to US$519 per share, highlighting very different expectations around Expedia’s future. When you set those views against the current focus on U.S. demand softness and pricing pressure, it underlines how differently investors weigh near term margin risks versus the long term potential of Expedia’s tech driven platform.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Expedia Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 82% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Expedia Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Expedia Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Expedia Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Expedia Group's overall financial health at a glance.

Searching For A Fresh Perspective?

The market won't wait. These fast-moving stocks are hot now. Grab the list before they run:

• The latest GPUs need a type of rare earth metal called Terbium and there are only 35 companies in the world exploring or producing it. Find the list for free.
• The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.
• We've found 13 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com