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    The Bull Case For AGL Energy (ASX:AGL) Could Change Following Its Push For Private Renewables Capital

    Simply Wall St·12/17/2025 18:23:24
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    • In recent days, AGL Energy has moved to secure private capital for its green energy portfolio, aligning with Origin Energy in tapping external investors to help fund large-scale renewable and firming assets.
    • This push to bring in private equity highlights how capital-intensive AGL’s decarbonization plans are, and how willing it is to share ownership of future renewable earnings streams to accelerate its transition.
    • We’ll now examine how AGL’s pursuit of private capital for renewables could influence its investment narrative built around transition and earnings stability.

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    AGL Energy Investment Narrative Recap

    To be comfortable holding AGL, you need to believe its heavy investment in renewables and firming assets will eventually translate into more stable earnings and cash flows, despite current losses and high debt. The move to invite private capital into its green portfolio slightly softens the funding burden, but does not materially change the near term catalysts around project delivery or the key risk of capital-intensive transition compressing free cash flow and dividend flexibility.

    The recent FY2025 result, with A$14,393 million in sales but a net loss of A$98 million and a reduced 25 cent dividend, sits squarely in this context. Management’s FY2026 Underlying NPAT guidance of A$500 million to A$700 million underlines how much now hinges on timely execution of new firming projects and the effectiveness of AGL’s retail and digital transformation programs.

    But while the transition story is attracting fresh capital, investors should be aware that...

    Read the full narrative on AGL Energy (it's free!)

    AGL Energy's narrative projects A$14.5 billion revenue and A$629.9 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how AGL Energy's forecasts yield a A$11.48 fair value, a 21% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ASX:AGL 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ASX:AGL 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Six members of the Simply Wall St Community place AGL’s fair value anywhere between about A$0.44 and A$12, underscoring just how far views can diverge. When you weigh that spread against AGL’s heavy capital program and pressure on free cash flow, it becomes clear why taking in several perspectives matters before forming your own view on the company’s prospects.

    Explore 6 other fair value estimates on AGL Energy - why the stock might be worth as much as 27% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own AGL Energy Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.