Carrier Global (CARR): Reassessing Valuation After Q4 2025 Pre-Announcement and HVAC Weakness

Carrier Global (CARR) has been under pressure since its Q4 2025 earnings pre announcement highlighted weakness in the Americas residential HVAC business, a key revenue driver that has investors rethinking near term expectations.

See our latest analysis for Carrier Global.

That cautious tone has been echoed in the share price, with Carrier now trading around $53.44 and posting a weak year to date share price return while still delivering a solid mid double digit three year total shareholder return. This suggests long term holders remain ahead despite fading momentum.

If this kind of reset in expectations has you reassessing your watchlist, it might be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other ideas where growth and insider conviction are better aligned.

With the stock now trading at a hefty discount to analyst targets but facing real cyclical pressure in a core business, investors have to ask: Is Carrier quietly undervalued, or is the market correctly pricing in slower growth ahead?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 25.9% Undervalued

With Carrier Global last closing at $53.44 against a narrative fair value in the low 70s, the story leans toward mispriced upside rather than a value trap.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $82.902 for Carrier Global based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the more bullish reporting a price target of $100.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $65.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how mid single digit revenue growth, sharply higher margins, and shrinking share count can still justify a premium future earnings multiple? Unlock the full valuation playbook behind this call.

Result: Fair Value of $72.14 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, softer light commercial demand and lingering tariff exposure mean that any slip in execution could quickly erode margins and challenge that undervaluation thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Carrier Global narrative.

Build Your Own Carrier Global Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in under three minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Carrier Global research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Before you move on, lock in a few high conviction watchlist candidates using the Simply Wall St Screener, so you are not relying on one story alone.

• Capture potential mispricings by targeting companies trading below intrinsic value using these 915 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that still show healthy cash flow strength.
• Ride structural growth trends by zeroing in on innovation leaders through these 25 AI penny stocks that are transforming industries with intelligent automation and data driven products.
• Strengthen your income strategy by screening for resilient payers via these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that combine attractive yields with solid underlying fundamentals.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com