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    Orelabrutinib’s SLE Phase 2b Success Could Be A Game Changer For Zenas BioPharma (ZBIO)

    Simply Wall St·12/17/2025 08:16:13
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    • InnoCare Pharma recently reported that orelabrutinib met the primary endpoint in a Phase 2b trial for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and China’s Center for Drug Evaluation has cleared a Phase 3 registrational study.
    • Because Zenas BioPharma holds exclusive rights to develop and commercialize orelabrutinib in multiple sclerosis globally and in non-oncology indications outside Greater China and Southeast Asia, this progress in SLE materially enhances the drug’s profile across its broader autoimmune franchise.
    • We’ll now examine how orelabrutinib’s Phase 2b success in SLE and progression to Phase 3 could influence Zenas BioPharma’s investment narrative.

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    What Is Zenas BioPharma's Investment Narrative?

    To own Zenas BioPharma, you need to believe its autoimmune portfolio can translate a very large R&D spend into commercial products before the cash runway and investor patience run thin. The recent orelabrutinib SLE readout, and the move into a Phase 3 registrational trial in China, strengthens the scientific case for BTK inhibition across autoimmunity and indirectly supports Zenas’s rights in multiple sclerosis and other non‑oncology indications. In the near term, though, the more immediate catalysts still look tied to obexelimab data, regulatory interactions, and how management deploys the roughly US$195.0 million raised through private placements and the US$200.0 million ATM capacity. With shares already up sharply this year and losses widening to US$189.90 million on just US$15.00 million of revenue, financing risk and execution around a relatively new management team remain front and center.

    However, one financing and dilution risk in particular is worth looking at more closely. According our valuation report, there's an indication that Zenas BioPharma's share price might be on the expensive side.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ZBIO 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ZBIO 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    The single fair value estimate from the Simply Wall St Community sits at US$47.75, close to current analyst targets, yet recent clinical progress and ongoing losses mean different investors may weigh upside and risk very differently, so it is worth comparing several viewpoints before making up your mind.

    Explore another fair value estimate on Zenas BioPharma - why the stock might be worth as much as 29% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Zenas BioPharma Narrative

    Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.