Huaan Securities: The chemical industry's anti-domestic market drive cycle recovery, domestic substitution leads the main line of growth

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaan Securities released a research report saying that new domestic silicone production capacity peaked, and leading companies led industry recovery; PTA capacity expansion came to a phased end, polyester filament production capacity was concentrated, and polyester chain boom is expected to pick up; bio-based materials are strongly supported by national policies, and enterprises accelerate technological breakthroughs and industrialization; and there are three strong overseas manufacturers of electronic ceramics. MLCC domestic breakthroughs have accompanied the rise in demand for AI/automobiles, and improving supply and demand.

The main views of Huaan Securities are as follows:

Focus on the two main lines of anti-corruption and domestic substitution

The global macro is facing great uncertainty in 2026. In the face of a reshaping of the global trade pattern and a slowdown in chemical capital expenditure, the bank suggests focusing on two major investment lines with high certainty: anti-domestic investment and domestic substitution. China's chemical product price index fell to a low level in 25 years due to falling upstream energy prices and pressure on chemical supply and demand. As of November 30, '25, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) closed at 3,865 points, down 16.37% from 4,622 points in early 2024, down 10.71% from 4,329 points at the beginning of this year, and 16.28% in the past five years.

Comprehensively rectify internal rolling competition and actively seize opportunities for cycle reversal

New domestic silicone production capacity peaked, and overseas manufacturers continued to withdraw, leading companies led industry recovery; PTA production capacity expansion ended in stages, polyester filament production capacity was concentrated, and polyester chain sentiment is expected to pick up; caprolactam prices fell to a low point, and the industry began spontaneous reverse internal reversal; the original drug price index bottomed out, and high-frequency safety incidents led to a sharp increase in the risk of disrupting the global supply chain of key pesticides. Sudden supply contraction became a key catalyst for price repair in the long term; spandex prices fell below the cost line and the industry generally lost new production capacity The slowdown has slowed significantly, and the optimization of the supply pattern is expected to drive a recovery in prices; vitamins Prices rose sharply in 2024, and the pattern of tightening global supply continued; the sugar substitute industry benefited from global sugar reduction policies and increased health awareness, and the penetration rate of natural sugar surrogates continued to increase and synthetic biology technology further broadened development space; second-generation refrigerant quotas were reduced at an accelerated pace, three generations entered a quota freeze period, and the supply-side expansion was strict, driving prices of mainstream products to continue to rise; supply and demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate improved, and prices rebounded strongly.

Domestic substitution leads the main line of growth, and the layout is at the right time

Bio-based materials are strongly supported by national policies, and enterprises have accelerated technological breakthroughs and industrialization, and the gradual transformation of domesticated ecology from bio-based monomers to composite products; domestic companies have accelerated technological breakthroughs in lubricant additives, and the strategic transformation has achieved remarkable results. Many high-end products have passed international certification, and the import and export structure has reversed domestic substitution into the fast track; the global display panel market is growing steadily, and domestic enterprises are accelerating material upgrading and iteration and material research and development. The localization process has accelerated markedly; there are three major overseas manufacturers of electronic ceramics, and MLCC breakthroughs are accompanied by a rise in demand for AI/automotive heating Needs to improve; fluorinated liquid 3M has withdrawn from the market pattern reshaping, demand for liquid cooling and semiconductor manufacturing is booming, and they are optimistic that domestic manufacturers will increase their market share; AI servers have exploded; electronic grade polyphenylene ether has become a key material with excellent dielectric properties; domestic manufacturers have achieved technological breakthroughs and mass production, entered the leading supply chain, and domestic substitution accelerated; global wafer production capacity has entered an expansion cycle, and electronic chemicals as essential consumables are being promoted by both process improvement and production capacity expansion.

Actively seize anti-cohesion cycle recovery opportunities

Domestic silicone production capacity peaked. It is recommended to focus on [Hesheng Silicon] [Xingfa Group], etc.; PTA production capacity expansion ended in stages, polyester filament production capacity tends to be concentrated; it is recommended to focus on [Xinfengming] [Tongkun Co., Ltd.], etc.; the price of caprolactam fell to a low point, and the industry started a spontaneous reversal; it is recommended to pay attention to [Hualu Hengsheng] [Luxi Chemical], etc.; it is recommended to focus on [Hualu Hengsheng] [Luxi Chemical], etc.; it is recommended to focus on [Yangnong Chemical] [Runfeng Co., Ltd.], etc.; it is recommended to focus on [Yangnong Chemical] [Runfeng Co., Ltd.], etc.; The slowdown has slowed significantly, and the optimization of the supply pattern is expected to drive price recovery. It is recommended to pay attention to [Huafeng [Chemistry] [Taihe New Materials], etc.; the price of vitamins rose sharply in 2024, and the pattern of tightening global supply continues; the sugar substitute industry benefits from global sugar reduction policies and increased health awareness, and it is recommended to focus on [Xinhecheng], [Bailong Chuangyuan], etc.; the second-generation refrigerant quota has been reduced at an accelerated pace, and the third generation has entered a quota freeze period, driving the price of mainstream products to continue to rise; it is recommended to focus on [Juhua Co., Ltd.]; the supply and demand of lithium hexafluorophosphate has improved, and prices have rebounded strongly; it is recommended to focus on [polyfluoride], etc.; it is recommended to focus on [Polyfluoride], etc.; the supply and demand of lithium hexafluorophosphate have improved, and prices have rebounded strongly.

The time is right for a burgeoning layout to replace domestic products

Bio-based materials are strongly supported by national policies. From bio-based monomers to the localized ecology of composite products, it is recommended to focus on [Cathay Biotech] [Huaheng Biology]; domestic lubricant additives accelerate technological breakthroughs, and it is recommended to focus on [Ruifeng New Materials]; the steady growth of the global display panel market, it is recommended to focus on [Wright Optoelectronics]; there are three strong overseas manufacturers of electronic ceramics, and supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to [Guocera Materials]; Fluorinated liquid 3M withdraws from the market pattern and is optimistic about increasing the market share share of domestic manufacturers [New concerns] Zhoubang]; AI Servers have exploded, and electronic grade polyphenylene ether has become a key material due to its excellent dielectric properties. It is recommended to focus on [Dongcai Technology] and [Shengquan Group]; wafer production capacity has entered a global expansion cycle. Electronic chemicals, as essential consumables, are optimistic about the upward cycle, driven by both process improvement and capacity expansion, and related companies [Zhongjuxin].

Risk Alerts

1. Risk of large fluctuations in chemical prices; 2. Risk of changes in industry and regulatory policies; 3. Risk of force majeure and production safety; 4. Risk of intensification of local global conflicts; 5. Risk of trade disputes between countries and regions; 6. Risk of sharp macroeconomic decline.