Aristocrat Leisure (ASX:ALL): Valuation Check After Buyback Update, 2025 Report and Fitch Rating Upgrade

Aristocrat Leisure (ASX:ALL) just packed several investor friendly updates into one move, combining a fresh buy back progress report, its 2025 Annual Report release, reiterated FY26 growth guidance, and a Fitch credit upgrade.

See our latest analysis for Aristocrat Leisure.

Those updates come after a tough stretch for the stock, with a roughly 17 percent year to date share price decline and weaker recent momentum, even though the five year total shareholder return is still close to doubling investors money.

If Aristocrat’s latest moves have you rethinking your portfolio, this could be a good moment to explore other gaming and leisure names via fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With buy backs accelerating, earnings still growing, and the share price lagging analysts targets, is Aristocrat Leisure now trading below its true potential, or is the market already baking in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 22% Undervalued

With Aristocrat Leisure closing at A$56.82 against a narrative fair value of about A$72.81, the current price embeds a sizable valuation gap.

The analysts have a consensus price target of A$71.522 for Aristocrat Leisure based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of A$79.3, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just A$52.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what powers this higher valuation view? The narrative leans on rising margins, compounding earnings and a richer future multiple. Curious which assumptions really move the needle?

Result: Fair Value of $72.81 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, strategic missteps around asset sales or a sharper-than-expected slowdown in North American gaming demand could undermine the upbeat valuation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Aristocrat Leisure narrative.

Build Your Own Aristocrat Leisure Narrative

If you are not fully convinced by this view, or prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalised narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Aristocrat Leisure.

Ready for more smart investment ideas?

Before the next market move leaves you watching from the sidelines, put your research to work with tailored stock ideas from the Simply Wall St screener today.

• Capture potential early stage growth by scanning these 3625 penny stocks with strong financials that already show stronger balance sheets and fundamentals than the typical speculative name.
• Position yourself for the next wave of innovation by targeting these 26 AI penny stocks building real businesses around artificial intelligence, not just hype.
• Lock in income focused opportunities by zeroing in on these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that can boost your portfolio’s cash flow while markets stay unpredictable.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com