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    MPLX (MPLX): Assessing Whether Its Recent Outperformance Still Leaves Upside in the Valuation

    Simply Wall St·12/16/2025 07:15:08
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    MPLX (MPLX) has quietly outperformed much of the midstream space over the past year, and that kind of steady climb usually signals investors see more than just a generous payout.

    See our latest analysis for MPLX.

    At a share price of about $54.90, MPLX has logged a solid 12.9 percent year to date share price return, while its 24.4 percent one year total shareholder return suggests momentum is still building rather than fading.

    If MPLX's steady climb has you thinking about broader income and infrastructure plays, it could be a good time to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

    With units hovering near record highs, a fat yield, and a modest discount to analyst targets, investors now face a tougher question: Is MPLX still undervalued, or is the market already pricing in years of steady growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 4.2% Undervalued

    With MPLX closing at $54.90 against a narrative fair value of about $57.29, the story leans toward modest upside built on durable cash generation.

    The company's disciplined capital allocation prioritizing mid teens returns on investment, maintaining low leverage, and growing both organic and bolt on projects positions MPLX for continued mid single digit annual EBITDA growth and double digit distribution increases, enhancing total capital returns to unitholders. Integration and optimization of MPLX's expanded asset base, including enhanced blending and treating capabilities and increased operational flexibility, are expected to drive further cost efficiencies and improved asset utilization, contributing to margin expansion and higher earnings.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see how steady, mid single digit growth can still justify a richer earnings multiple and rising payouts, even in a slow growth sector? The narrative quietly bakes in bolder profitability assumptions than the market is pricing. Curious which cash flow and margin levers have to fire in tandem to make this upside case hold together? Dive in and test whether those projections pass your own sniff test.

    Result: Fair Value of $57.29 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, that upside case could unravel if Permian volumes disappoint or new NGL and export projects underdeliver, leaving expensive infrastructure underutilized.

    Find out about the key risks to this MPLX narrative.

    Build Your Own MPLX Narrative

    If this perspective does not quite fit your view, or you prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a complete narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your MPLX research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Ready for your next investing move?

    Do not stop with just one opportunity. Confidently use the Simply Wall Street Screener to pinpoint mispriced potential and avoid watching the next big winner pass you by.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.