Huachuang Securities: Suggest to grasp the pre-holiday liquor market repair market, and give priority to Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that it is recommended to grasp the pre-holiday liquor recovery market. In the short term, prices and stock prices fell in November-December, and negative feelings from dealers spread, not only because the conflict between supply and demand broke out this year, but also concerns about next year's path. Mao Wuliang's mood should be repaired after operating the license, and even though the Spring Festival is late, sales resilience can be expected; in the medium to long term, the next six months are still the absolute profit capital layout cycle for liquor. Currently, the bank suggests prioritizing the layout of Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), which has a lower risk of drastically reducing performance.

The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:

Maotai: Controlling goods, repairing channel confidence, prices bottomed out and rebounded

Against the backdrop of a mismatch between supply and demand on the channel side and weakening channel confidence, Flying Sky's batch price once fell to around 1,500 yuan. Considering that the current price hit the guide price, various provinces and regions held intensive market work meetings this week to respond in a timely manner to respond in a timely manner to effectively relieve channel concerns. The weekend price price should rise back to around 100 yuan to about 1,600 yuan. Specifically, the first is that the company plans to stop investing in Maotai quotas that are not completed in the 2025 plan, without emphasizing a good start. It is expected that the control of goods will continue until mid-late January. Second, it is planned that the next year may further reduce the quota for high-value-added Maotai products, and further reduce the supply of products such as vintage wine, precious products, and one-liter Maotai, and launch market-based operations to further raise prices, enhance subsidies, repair dealer profits, and continue to implement the “not only indicator theory” in the early stages. Looking ahead to next year, the bank believes that it is still difficult to balance the company's performance growth with price stability. The local pillar state-owned enterprise style is likely to be based on the principle of adapting supply and demand. The pace of reporting is gradually declining. A slowdown next year is inevitable. On the growth path, or by controlling high-value-added products to achieve price increases, quality secures dealer profit margins and relieves financial pressure, and Feitian may moderately liberalize investment to introduce an active distribution system for fresh blood, and accumulate channel dynamism.

Wuliangye: Strengthening subsidies to guarantee turnover

First, payment discounts were granted during the Yuanchun period, and the general five invoice price was adjusted to 900 yuan. This is the first time since 2014 that the company has adjusted its payment policy, significantly reducing the channel's capital costs. The second is to give four rewards: channel market expansion/innovative marketing promotion/fuzzy reward/bottle code scanning. If each reward is full and superimposed, the single bottle subsidy can reach nearly 100 yuan, effectively supplementing channel profits. In addition, considering 1218 rewards and bill support, the actual rewards are even stronger. The third is to promote digital management. P5 launched a code scanning lottery to help with sales and increase turnover. In addition, the company signed a package agreement with Tobacco Hotel to grant tiered rebates, coupons, etc., strengthen terminal rebates and binding, and establish a new channel-terminal service system.

In this regard, the bank believes that change is the only way out

At this point, Wuliangye has the courage to drastically clear the market and cut prices in line with the trend, and should be recognized; only with changes can there be a way out and in line with the rules of the liquor industry. The key to getting out of the current predicament is more clear. Only by making drastic adjustments to reports, subsidizing dealers to maintain channels, and increasing spending to encourage consumers to open their bottles can the market order be restructured.

It is expected that next year the volume of the liquor industry will take precedence over price, and sales will come first

In the liquor industry, price stability in Maotai determines the height of the industry ceiling, and Wuliangye determines the speed at which the industry clears out. Currently, after the Mao Wuliang brand, the industry has operated more clearly in '26, but it still requires Spring Festival repayment and sales inspections. Other leaders are also reducing shipments and stabilizing batch prices, but volume and price conflicts and inventory pressure are more prominent. On a two-year perspective, it is expected that Mao's five batch prices will stabilize after the Spring Festival and that inventory will be digested during the peak season, which is the key point for other wine companies to take the lead and speed up their return to storage by cutting prices.

Risk warning: demand for liquor fell short of expectations, prices fell beyond expectations, consumption scenarios continued to be suppressed, etc.