Pacific Securities: “Anti-Incursion” Catalyzes Cycle Recovery and “New Economy” Drives New Material Growth

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Pacific Securities released a research report saying that looking ahead to 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the global crude oil market will face significant oversupply pressure. However, it has been observed that the pace of OPEC+ production growth has slowed down. At the same time, the US dollar is in a cycle of interest rate cuts, which supports commodity prices, and oil prices are currently close to the average price of the past ten years. It is believed that oil prices are expected to gradually stabilize, or even rebound slightly.

Pacific Securities's main views are as follows:

2025 Industry Review: The chemical industry is clearly segmented

As of December 12, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 16.04% during the year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 16.42%, and the Shenzhen Securities Index rose 27.31%; the CITIC Basic Chemicals Index rose 32.16%, and the CITIC Petroleum & Petrochemical Index rose 6.59%, showing significant differentiation within the industry. Overall, the basic chemical industry was affected by the robotics industry chain and increased demand for electronic chemical materials by AI computing power, etc., and performed significantly better than the market; petroleum and petrochemicals were affected by the downward trend in oil prices, and prosperity was under pressure.

2025 Industry Review: Subsectors are clearly divided

As of December 12, 2025, the CITIC Tier 1 industry had 29 gains and only 2 declines. The year-to-date increase in petroleum and petrochemicals was 6.59%, while basic chemicals rose 32.16%. Of the 39 CITIC third-level sub-industries in the chemical industry, 38 rose and 1 fell (26 rose and 13 fell in the same period last year). Among them, potash fertilizer (+85.87%), inorganic salts (+81.78%), and modified plastics (+75.99%) had the highest increases, while oil refining (-8.99%), polyurethane (+0.46%), and cotton (+1.15%) had the lowest increases and decreases.

In 2025, resource products received widespread attention, and prices of potash fertilizer, lithium ore and phosphate ore maintained a good boom; domestic scientific and technological innovation vigorously developed new productivity, the robot industry chain was booming, and demand for lightweight materials and modified plastics increased markedly. Looking ahead to 2026, the bank continues to be optimistic about scarce resources and new chemical materials related to new technologies.

Energy and chemicals review and 2026 outlook: oil prices and chemical prices are expected to stabilize or rebound slightly

According to Wind data, as of December 12, 2025, the average price of WTI and Brent crude oil futures during the year was 65.05 US dollars/barrel and 68.36 US dollars/barrel respectively, which is a significant decrease from 76.10 US dollars/barrel and 80.11 US dollars/barrel in the same period in 2024. Natural gas prices have clearly risen since the beginning of the year, and coal prices have fluctuated and stabilized. China's chemical product price index has declined markedly since the beginning of the year. It is already significantly lower than the average for the past 12 years, indicating that demand is still weak, but recently there are signs of a rebound.

Risk Alerts

1. The risk of a sharp drop in product prices; 2. The risk that the progress of new production capacity investment exceeds expectations; 3. The risk of sharp fluctuations in the raw materials market; 4. The risk that downstream demand falls short of expectations.