Zhongtai Securities: Health and scene segmentation lead the new growth of energy drinks, focus on recommending Dongpeng Drink (605499.SH)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that in the future, Zhongtai Securities released a research report saying that in the future, the energy drink industry will evolve from a single rigid demand for energy supplementation in the past to healthy and segmented scenarios. As the leading brand in the industry, Dongpeng Drink (605499.SH) will accurately position consumers' core needs and continue to strengthen its advantages through advance cards for sugar-free products during the market upgrade process. At the same time, considering that the prices of the main raw materials for energy drinks remain low, the bank focuses on recommending Dongpeng Drink.

The main views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:

Industry development status in 2025: Dongpeng climbs to the top, reserve price+large packaging becomes the industry standard

According to Euromonitor data, China's energy drink market is expected to reach 62,755 billion yuan in 2025, up 4.3% year on year; sales volume is expected to be 4.1899 million kiloliters, up 6.4% year on year, and the industry is showing a steady growth trend. According to Immediate Win data, Dongpeng topped the list with a market share of 39.87% in the first half of 2025. As competition in the industry intensified, low price promotions continued. The average price in the industry fell 1.89% year on year to 14.98 yuan/liter in 2025, which is narrower than in 2024 (-4.64%). Dongpeng continues to “enjoy one yuan”, unify the price of Huanshen's 1L package at 6 yuan, and the low price+large package has become the core competitive strategy.

The underlying logic of industry development: the dual drive of internal demand and lifestyle

Domestic: The internal sector generates rigid demand: The internal social sector accelerates the demand for energy supplementation. Different stages of development are related to rapid economic development and increased labor intensity. Currently, the consumer population extends to “new blue collar workers”, white-collar workers, and students. According to data from Kashi Consulting, sports scene consumption accounts for 31.21%, followed by overtime at night (30.12%) and staying up late to study (29.44%), with traditional driving scenarios accounting for only 23.34%. According to the Zhilian Recruitment Report, 38.7% of workers work overtime almost every day and 21.9% work overtime 2-3 times a week; the number of college entrance examinees has surged and the acceptance rate has declined, and the pressure on students to prepare for the exam is high, further expanding the demand group.

Overseas: From immediate functional requirements to lifestyle upgrading: The overseas energy drink industry has evolved from extensive functionality to health, differentiated functions, and diversified flavors. In the US market, Monster and Red Bull had a market share of 70.9% before 2020, and Celsius's market share rose from 1.7% to 13.7% in 2021-2025. With “0 sugar +0 fat +0 calories” healthy formula, “fat burning” core positioning and diverse flavors, it became the third brand in the market, confirming the direction of industry transformation.

Mainstream raw materials: Taurine and white sugar prices are expected to remain low

Taurine: Low price due to overcapacity: Drinks are the largest application market for taurine (accounting for 45%), with a total global production capacity of about 200,000 tons. China accounts for more than 70% (about 150,000 tons), the top five domestic manufacturers account for more than 90% of production, and Yongan Pharmaceutical accounts for about 50% of the market. Due to overcapacity and the low price of raw material ethylene oxide, the price of taurine will continue to decline from 2022, and is expected to remain low in the short term.

White sugar: Changes in supply and demand suppress sugar prices: In 2025/26, China's sugar planting area is expected to reach 1439 thousand hectares, with a total sugar production of 11.7 million tons, imports of 5 million tons, exports of 180,000 tons, and total consumption of 15.7 million tons. The market shifts from inventory removal to storage cycle. Sugar prices have continued to decline since September 2023, and are expected to remain relatively low in the short term.

Development trend: health+lightweight scenarios promote industry development

Health has become a core product trend: 67.87% of consumers are in demand for sugar control, and overseas giants are laying out sugar-free products. Domestic Dongpeng will launch sugar-free energy drinks in 2025 to replace white sugar with natural sugar substitutes such as erythritol, leading the healthy transformation of the industry.

Mild development of the consumption scenario: The consumption scenario has moved from an explosive scenario of “physical overrun” to high-frequency, lightweight mental endurance scenarios such as “long meetings” and “afternoon sleepiness,” while also expanding to fields such as sports, fitness, and e-sports fatigue. Dongpeng's sugar-free version adds L-alpha-choline glyphate (a new food ingredient) to focus on relieving brain fatigue and push the industry to upgrade from “physical fitness” to “brain-body collaborative battery life”.

Risk warning: Risk of channel research sample deviation, risk of fluctuations in product quality, risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, risk of market competition, risk of information delays or untimely updates in public data used in research reports, and risk of industry space estimation.