Is U.S. Bancorp Still Attractive After Its 14% Monthly Rally in 2025?

• If you are wondering whether U.S. Bancorp at around $53.71 is still worth buying after its recent run, you are not alone. This piece is going to unpack what the current price really implies about value.
• The stock has climbed about 4.5% over the last week and 14.0% in the past month, building on a 12.2% gain year to date and roughly 9.3% over the last year. This hints that the market is slowly warming back up to the name after a choppy few years.
• Recent headlines have focused on the health of regional banks, regulatory scrutiny and the interest rate outlook. All of these factors feed directly into how investors perceive the risk profile of U.S. Bancorp. Alongside that, commentary around loan growth, credit quality and deposit stability has kept the stock in the spotlight as investors recalibrate which banks are best placed for the next stage of the cycle.
• On our framework, U.S. Bancorp posts a valuation score of 4 out of 6. This means it screens as undervalued on most but not all of our checks. Next we will walk through the different valuation approaches that lead to that conclusion, before finishing with a perspective that can often be even more powerful than any single model.

Find out why U.S. Bancorp's 9.3% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: U.S. Bancorp Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model looks at how effectively U.S. Bancorp turns shareholder capital into profits above its cost of equity, then capitalizes those surplus returns into an intrinsic value per share.

In this framework, U.S. Bancorp starts with a Book Value of $36.32 per share and an Average Return on Equity of 12.90%. That earnings power translates into a Stable EPS of $5.18 per share, based on weighted future ROE estimates from 15 analysts. After accounting for a Cost of Equity of $3.10 per share, the bank is expected to generate an Excess Return of $2.08 per share.

Over time, those excess profits are assumed to compound on a Stable Book Value base of $40.14 per share, informed by book value estimates from 12 analysts. Together, these inputs yield an intrinsic value of about $86.81 per share, compared with the current price near $53.71, which implies the stock is roughly 38.1% undervalued.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests U.S. Bancorp is undervalued by 38.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 908 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for U.S. Bancorp.

Approach 2: U.S. Bancorp Price vs Earnings

For a consistently profitable bank like U.S. Bancorp, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a practical way to gauge what investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. In general, faster growth and lower perceived risk justify a higher PE, while slower growth or higher risk call for a lower, more cautious multiple.

U.S. Bancorp currently trades on a PE of about 12.26x. That is slightly above the broader Banks industry average of roughly 11.95x, but well below the peer group average of around 18.59x. This suggests the market is still applying a discount relative to many comparably sized banks. To refine this view, Simply Wall St calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio of 14.30x. This reflects what the PE “should” be once you factor in U.S. Bancorp’s specific earnings growth outlook, profitability, risk profile, industry positioning and market cap.

This Fair Ratio is more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the sector because it is tailored to the company’s own fundamentals rather than broad group averages. With the Fair Ratio above the current 12.26x, the PE framework points to U.S. Bancorp being modestly undervalued at today’s price.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1446 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your U.S. Bancorp Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives, which are simple stories that connect your view of U.S. Bancorp’s business (its growth, margins and risks) to a concrete financial forecast and then to a personal fair value that you can compare to today’s share price. Narratives on Simply Wall St, available to millions of investors on the Community page, let you plug in assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins, see how that translates into a fair value, and then decide whether the stock looks attractive, fairly priced or overvalued at the current market price. Because Narratives update dynamically when new information such as earnings, regulatory changes or major news hits, they help you continually reassess whether to buy, hold or sell. For example, one U.S. Bancorp Narrative might assume strong fee income growth, operating leverage and a future PE of about 14.2x, leading to a fair value near $67. In contrast, a more cautious Narrative might focus on digital disruption, credit risk and slower growth, landing closer to $47. Your job is to decide which story feels more realistic and act accordingly.

Do you think there's more to the story for U.S. Bancorp? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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