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    Oracle (ORCL): Has the Recent 40% Slide Opened a Long-Term Value Opportunity?

    Simply Wall St·12/16/2025 00:30:54
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    Oracle (ORCL) has quietly slipped about 17% over the past month and nearly 40% in the past 3 months, even though revenue and net income are still growing at double digit rates year over year.

    See our latest analysis for Oracle.

    That slump looks more like a reset than a collapse, given the share price is still at $184.92 and Oracle’s longer term total shareholder return remains very strong, with momentum clearly fading in the near term while the broader growth story stays intact.

    If Oracle’s drop has you rethinking your tech exposure, this could be a useful moment to explore other potential compounders via high growth tech and AI stocks and see what else is lining up for long term growth.

    With revenue and profits still expanding at double digit rates while the share price lags, investors now face a key question: is Oracle quietly slipping into undervalued territory, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 52.6% Undervalued

    According to TickerTickle, the narrative fair value of $389.81 sits far above Oracle’s last close at $184.92. This frames a striking valuation gap and sets up a bold growth thesis.

    The story of Oracle’s transformation is a narrative of strategic repositioning that has culminated in the company emerging as an indispensable infrastructure partner for the world’s most demanding Artificial Intelligence (AI) workloads. This strategic shift, defined by massive infrastructure investment, a landmark partnership with OpenAI, and the rise of colossal superclusters, has driven an unprecedented surge in its contract backlog, fundamentally reshaping Oracle’s long term growth trajectory and competitive landscape.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see why this narrative assigns such a steep upside? The engine is explosive revenue expansion, rising margins, and a future earnings multiple usually reserved for category defining platforms. Curious which long range cash flow assumptions and discount rate make that fair value estimate add up? Click through to unpack the full valuation blueprint.

    Result: Fair Value of $389.81 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, sustained supply bottlenecks or slower than expected conversion of Oracle’s massive AI backlog into realized revenue could quickly puncture this hypergrowth narrative.

    Find out about the key risks to this Oracle narrative.

    Build Your Own Oracle Narrative

    If you want to challenge this view or dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh Oracle storyline in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Oracle research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    Before you move on, consider using the Simply Wall Street Screener to explore your next potential investments, where fresh opportunities are constantly surfacing across sectors.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.