Orient Securities: 2026 quota issuance is optimistic about the three-generation refrigerant boom cycle

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that in 2026, the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants was 79,7844 tons, and the domestic use quota was 39,4082 tons. Compared with 2025, the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 will increase by 5962 tons, and the domestic use quota will increase by 4502 tons. On the current demand side, refrigeration equipment such as air conditioners and automobiles continues to grow. As ownership continues to increase, demand for refrigerants will continue to increase. The issuance of quotas in 2026 has not changed much compared to 2025. The quota policy continues. We are optimistic that the refrigerant boom will rise, and companies with the highest quota share are expected to benefit.

Orient Securities's main views are as follows:

Quotas will be issued in 2026, with little change in quotas

The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 was 79,7844 tons, and the domestic use quota was 39,4082 tons. Compared with 2025, the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 increased by 5962 tons, and the domestic use quota increased by 4502 tons. The increase in production quotas in 2026 is mainly an increase of 1,171 tons for R32, an increase of 3,242 tons for R134a, and an increase of 2,918 tons for R245fa; the reduction in quotas includes a decrease of 1,255 tons for R143a, a 517 ton reduction for R227ea, and a decrease of 63 tons for R152a.

The price of third-generation refrigerants continues to rise

According to Baichuan Yingfu, as of December 12, 2025, the price of mainstream third-generation refrigerants and blends R134a/r32/r410 was 57500/45500/62500/54,000 yuan/ton, weekly increase +1.77%/+1.11%/0.00%/+0.93%, monthly increase +6.48%/+1.11%/+0.00%/+0.93%, quarterly increase +11.65%/+1.11%/+2.46%/+6.93%, annual increase +43.75% /+ 19.74%/+56.25%/+42.11%.

Supply rigidity under refrigerant quota restrictions, optimistic about the refrigerant boom cycle

Demand for refrigeration continues to grow. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative value of domestic air conditioning production from January to October 2025 was 23.34 million units, +3.00% over the same period. The export base continued to be high, with an export volume of 52.43 million units, or -1.10%. The cumulative value of domestic automobile production from January to October 2025 was 27.325 million units, +11.00% year on year, and 5.616 million units were exported, +15.66% year over year. Supply side: The domestic third-generation refrigerant freeze period begins in 2024, and supply is rigid under quota restrictions. Demand side: Refrigeration equipment such as air conditioners and automobiles continues to grow. As ownership continues to increase, demand for refrigerants will continue to increase. Orient Securities believes that due to the supply-side rigidity of third-generation refrigerants under quota restrictions, third-generation refrigerants are expected to increase in the boom cycle as downstream demand gradually grows.

Aspect of the target

Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379.SH), Haohua Technology (600378.SH), Yonghe Co., Ltd. (). 605020.SH

Risk Alerts

Prices of raw materials fluctuated sharply, demand for refrigerants fell short of expectations, and alternatives such as fourth-generation refrigerants progressed rapidly.