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    Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) Valuation After REDEMPLO Approval, Plozasiran Breakthrough Status and ARO-MAPT Trial Progress

    Simply Wall St·12/15/2025 03:21:50
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    Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) has had a busy stretch, with REDEMPLO winning FDA approval, plozasiran earning Breakthrough Therapy status, and ARO MAPT entering human trials, all of which are reshaping how investors view the stock.

    See our latest analysis for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals.

    All of this clinical and regulatory momentum has shown up in the numbers, with a roughly 70 percent 1 month share price return and a powerful 220 percent 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests sentiment has shifted decisively in Arrowhead’s favor.

    If breakthroughs like REDEMPLO have your attention, this is also a good moment to explore other innovative healthcare stocks that could be riding the next wave of medical advances.

    After such a sharp rerating, with Arrowhead now trading above the average analyst target and future cardiometabolic and CNS milestones in view, is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in outsized growth?

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 22% Overvalued

    With Arrowhead closing at $70.09 versus a narrative fair value near $57.67, the current share price sits ahead of intrinsic value estimates. This sets up a sharp debate over what growth is already priced in.

    Progress in RNAi delivery technology (TRiM™ platform), pipeline breadth in both prevalent and rare/orphan indications, and first mover potential in CNS and adipose tissue RNAi expand Arrowhead's competitive edge as advancements in genomics and precision medicine increase the feasibility and personalization of RNAi therapies. This supports stronger projected net margins and long term earnings growth if adoption broadens.

    Read the complete narrative.

    To see what kind of revenue reset and margin change could justify this rich valuation, plus the high future earnings multiple behind it, dig into the full narrative to unpack the assumptions driving that fair value.

    Result: Fair Value of $57.67 (OVERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, execution missteps on late stage trials or partner disruptions, particularly around plozasiran and key collaborations, could quickly undermine the current optimism.

    Find out about the key risks to this Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals narrative.

    Build Your Own Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Narrative

    If the current view does not align with your own, or you prefer digging into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more high conviction investment ideas?

    Before momentum shifts again, use the Simply Wall St Screener to pinpoint fresh opportunities that match your strategy, instead of watching others capture the upside.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.