Orient Securities: The food and beverage industry is expected to usher in an inflection point in demand in 2026, and new consumption continues to boom with structural dividends

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that the current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historically low level, and the core contradiction is performance. 2026 is expected to usher in an inflection point in demand. Traditional consumption (such as liquor, food and beverage supply chains) is expected to reverse the bottom and release of flexibility after a full decline in performance; new consumption will continue to be strong with structural dividends. Overall, it will present a situation where total restoration and structural prosperity coexist.

Orient Securities's main views are as follows:

Food and beverage 2026: the starting point of the new year is easy to rise or fall. The core contradiction is performance

The bank believes that in 2021-2024, the food and beverage sector is mainly about eliminating the valuation bubble through performance releases. Standing at the end of 2025, sector valuations returned to the bottom of the historical range, but factors such as low consumption power caused the sector to fall in the performance range, and the sector's core contradictions returned to the molecular side, that is, performance.

Molecular side: From structural dividends to total restoration, keeping the “old” and welcoming the “new”

The bank believes that along with the structural transformation of the economy and the restoration of residents' balance sheets, 2026 is expected to become an inflection point on the demand side. Within a certain period of time, the “demand-side L” characteristics of consumption may coexist, the new consumer performance boom will continue, and the old consumer performance will clear; as time unfolds, consumption is expected to show a situation where total recovery and structural prosperity coexist. Both traditional consumption and new consumption are expected to improve performance.

Maintaining the “old”: demand bottoms out, management improves, and traditional consumption will usher in a reversal of the bottom

For traditional consumption, the bank believes that liquor in 2026 is the best observable indicator. The bank expects liquor performance to be fully revised in the first half of 2026, and then enter a phase of month-on-month improvement, which will also mark the bottom of food and beverage performance. On this basis, the quick-freezing, condiments, wine tasting, and dairy products sectors in the catering supply chain show a state of good inventory and low performance base, and some targets use their own competitive advantages to achieve a reversal of performance or flexible profit release; for liquor, after the performance enters the “L-shaped bottom”, the “debt-like asset” attribute of leading companies will strengthen, the current stock price position odds are good, board The block price is expected to be driven by rising valuations.

Welcoming the “new”: structural dividends continue, and the new consumption boom continues

As a mature industrial country, China itself is in a stage of economic structural transformation. Considering the population cycle and external environment, the bank believes that the structural characteristics of consumption will continue for quite a long time. The characteristics of “large total volume and strong structure” of domestic consumption will remain unchanged, and the acceptance of innovation is extremely high. New categories, new channels, and new markets will continue to drive consumer goods to achieve performance release.

Risk factors: 1) food safety; 2) industrial policy adjustments, etc.; 3) management team changes.